Chilean miner Antofagasta (LON: ANTO) reported a modest 1% rise in third-quarter copper output on Thursday and warned that full-year production will likely land at the lower end of its guidance range of 660,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, copper prices are expected to hold at 88,000 yuan/mt, while downstream purchasing sentiment has significantly weakened. Suppliers are likely to further lower prices to facilitate sales.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were at a discount of 240-200 yuan/mt today, with an average discount of 220 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 87,880 to 88,200 yuan/mt, with an average of 88,040 yuan/mt, up 1,810 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $10,856/mt, touched a low of $10,841.5/mt in early trading, then copper prices rose steadily and touched a high of $10,979.5/mt near the close, finally settling at $10,947/mt with a gain of 1.2%, trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest reached 319,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 87,050 yuan/mt, touched a low of 86,940 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center rose and touched a high of 87,960 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 87,660 yuan/mt with a gain of 0.91%, trading volume reached 104,000 lots, and open interest reached 280,000 lots.

This week, the secondary copper market showed a divergent pattern under the dual influence of improving macro expectations and policy uncertainties. Copper prices fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 500 yuan/mt, and the price of bare bright copper in Guangdong rose to 77,800-78,000 yuan/mt, a synchronized increase of 500 yuan/mt. The rise in copper prices boosted market sentiment, with the sales sentiment index of secondary copper raw material suppliers rising from 2.31 to 2.36, while the procurement sentiment index of secondary copper rod enterprises also edged up from 2.42 to 2.43, reflecting market optimism about the positive progress in China-US trade talks and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Next week, spot premiums are expected to continue declining amid high copper price pressure.