On Tuesday, October 21, the COMEX nearby copper futures contract is currently trading around $4.9 per pound, showing relatively resilient performance amid a sharp decline in precious metal prices.
TD Cowen highlighted in a report that the market is tightening and raised its 2026 price forecast from $4.40 to $5.25 per pound, while increasing its long-term price estimate from $4.25 to $4.50 per pound.
The forecast adjustment follows supply disruptions at several major mines, affecting approximately 5% of global supply. Copper prices had climbed after an accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
On September 8, a large-scale wet ore surge occurred at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, blocking access routes. Freeport immediately suspended operations at the mine and declared force majeure on its contracts. The Grasberg mine is the world's second-largest copper concentrate producer, with 2024 copper ore production of 816,500 mt, accounting for about 3.5% of global output. Prior to the accident, Grasberg had transitioned from open-pit to underground mining and completed its capacity ramp-up. Following the incident, Freeport officially lowered its production guidance, stating it would not meet the original Q4 sales target of 445 million pounds (approximately 200,000 mt of copper ore). Additionally, the company plans a phased restart of the affected area in 2026, reducing its full-year 2026 production target by 35% from 1.7 billion to 1.1 billion pounds and cutting copper ore output from 770,000 mt to 498,000 mt. Actual production from the mine this year may only reach 500,000 mt.
Other supply disruptions this year include the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine being affected by an earthquake, production difficulties at the QB copper mine, and a mine collapse at El Teniente, collectively accounting for about 2% of global supply.
Looking ahead, TD Cowen predicts a copper market supply deficit of 222,000 mt in 2026 and warns that this figure may be conservative.
Longer term, declining output from maturing copper mines, combined with a lack of greenfield investment, means copper prices are expected to rise inevitably to stimulate development.
Year-to-date, copper demand has been stronger than expected.
(Comprehensive report by Wen Hua)
