[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment Dominates Marginal Improvement in Fundamentals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Continue Fluctuating at Highs in Short Term] Macro front, both domestic and overseas macro sentiment leans positive. Expectations that Trump may nominate a dovish candidate as Fed Chairman have intensified, boosting market optimism for a December interest rate cut. Meanwhile, after the US federal government ended a record 43-day shutdown, backlogged economic data are being released gradually, alleviating market concerns about data uncertainty. Foreign institutions widely predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth next year with policy support, bolstering market confidence. Fundamentals side, previous aluminum price suppression on consumption has delayed some demand. Last week, the weekly operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises rose slightly by 0.3% MoM to 62.3%, with improvements seen in the operating rates of aluminum extrusion, aluminum wire and cable, and both primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors to varying degrees. Overall, fundamentals provide some support for prices, but recent aluminum price movements are mainly driven by macro sentiment. Overseas, focus remains on the progress of production cuts at the Iceland aluminum plant. SMM expects aluminum prices to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Most-Traded Contract Rebounds, Year-End Demand Supports Spot Price Resilience] The push for annual targets at year-end and the front-loading of orders driven by policy changes continue to manifest, coupled with high raw material costs providing support. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will maintain rangebound fluctuations in the short term, with price resilience remaining.

Customs data showed that China's aluminum wire and cable exports reached 22,300 mt in August 2025, up 26.35% MoM and 69% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to August totaled 175,100 mt, up 36.85% from 135,000 mt in the same period of 2024. By product structure, steel-core aluminum stranded wire exports were 15,000 mt, up 41% MoM and 80% YoY, accounting for 67% of total exports; aluminum stranded wire exports were 7,300 mt, up 5% MoM and 50% YoY, accounting for 33% of total exports. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000)

Based on a comprehensive analysis of supply-demand fundamentals, the current petroleum coke market is characterized by increasing supply and contracting demand. However, the release of stockpiling and restocking demand from downstream enterprises at the beginning of the month is expected to drive a slight recovery in petroleum coke demand. Additionally, the significant price increase of prebaked anodes in December has also supported the purchasing enthusiasm of prebaked anode enterprises for petroleum coke. Based on this, SMM expects petroleum coke prices to stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

Processing Fees for Aluminum Billets in Southern China Approach Yearly High—Coincidence or Inevitability? [SMM Analysis] As of November 28, the processing fees of φ120 aluminum billets in South China (centered on Foshan) were quoted at 390 yuan/mt, while those of φ90 aluminum billets were quoted at 440 yuan/mt, having accumulated an increase of over 200 yuan/mt from the monthly low and approaching the annual highs of 470 and 520 yuan/mt in 2025. Although there were fluctuations in Wuxi and Nanchang, the fees also showed significant recovery from the mid-month lows. The strong performance in late November appeared to be a short-term pulse driven by the pullback in aluminum prices and concentrated restocking, but in reality, it was an inevitable outcome under the seasonal pattern of the aluminum billet market in November—short-term price pullbacks as accidental factors only acted as a "catalyst," while the core support was...

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in November 2025 (30 days) increased 1.47% YoY, but decreased 2.82% MoM. Starting in November, aluminum gradually transitioned from peak consumption season to off-season, downstream operating rates showed a downward trend, and the proportion of liquid aluminum declined.

According to SMM statistics, as of November 28, 2025, domestic aluminum rod producers' inventory days stood at 6.68 days, a decrease of 0.36 days week-on-week, indicating an inventory drawdown trend with slightly eased supply-side pressure. The inventory ratio was recorded at 78.17%, down 6.74 percentage points from the previous week. Aluminum rod processing fees continued hovering at low levels throughout the week. Coupled with the bottoming-out recovery of aluminum prices, support for processing fee hikes remained insufficient.