According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas recorded 619,000 mt this Thursday, up 1,000 mt WoW, but destocking totaled 31,000 mt from the post-holiday high. On a YoY basis, domestic aluminum ingot inventory lost its favorable position of being at the lowest level in nearly three years for the same period, increasing by 22,000 mt compared to the same period last year. By region, among the major consumption areas, starting with Wuxi...

[SMM Analysis]Prices for Aluminum Tense Scrap Continue to Rise, Secondary Aluminum Alloy Prices Increase Steadily

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Insufficient Fundamental Drivers in the Aluminum Market Limit Upside Potential for Aluminum Prices]

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】ASEAN’s aluminium scrap trade is emerging as a strategic pillar in the global shift toward low-carbon manufacturing. Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam dominate regional flows, but regulatory fragmentation and illicit trade challenge market stability. Recent U.S.–ASEAN critical-minerals deals and expanded ties with Canada and China highlight growing global interest in the region’s recycling capacity. To realise its potential, ASEAN must harmonise policies, strengthen traceability, and build a cohesive circular-economy framework for sustainable aluminium production.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed Interest Rate Cut Implemented, Constraints on Aluminum Price Fluctuating at Highs Become Apparent] During the night session on October 29, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,290 yuan/mt, reached a highest price of 21,360 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 21,245 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 21,315 yuan/mt, up 0.09%, showing a pattern of fluctuation at highs with the trading center continuing to shift upward. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages maintained a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,250.00 > MA10: 21,251.00 > MA20: 21,115.75 > MA60: 20,938.58), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick level saw some change in the red column, maintaining a golden cross state (DIFF: 104.77, DEA: 93.45). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel; considering recent highs and lows (low around 20,640, high around 21,365), the resistance level is expected to be in the range of 21,350-21,550, and the support level in the range of 20,650-20,850.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost and Supply-Demand Tight Balance Provide Support, ADC12 Holds Up Well] On Wednesday, the SMM A00 aluminum price was quoted at 21,170 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the SMM ADC12 price held steady at 21,200 yuan/mt. Currently, the aluminum scrap supply remains tight, and procurement costs continue to climb. Enterprises are generally purchasing at high prices to ensure order fulfillment, with low-priced supply being scarce. Due to insufficient raw material availability, high raw material costs eroding profits, and uncertain policies in regions such as Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and ongoing pressure for order delivery, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost pressures and a supply-demand tight balance, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Contract Fluctuated Upward Overnight, Aluminum Tense Scrap Series Rose 100 Yuan/mt MoM] Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2512 futures contract opened at the day's low of 20,540 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, hitting a high of 20,690 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.51% from the previous close. Trading volume was 617 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions. Technical indicators suggest that the aluminum alloy 2512 futures contract is in a short-term bullish trend, with the moving averages in a bullish alignment providing strong support, and the price stabilizing and rebounding above the support level; however, attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance level at 20,775.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Strong Macro Support Maintains Aluminum Prices Fluctuating at Highs] On the night session of October 28, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,180 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,280 yuan/mt and the lowest price at 21,155 yuan/mt, finally settling at 21,245 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. The night session showed a pattern of rising initially and then fluctuating, with the trading center moving upward. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages continued their bullish alignment (MA5: 21,249.00 > MA10: 21,205.00 > MA20: 21,077.25 > MA60: 20,918.67), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick level saw a narrowing of the red bars, maintaining a golden cross state (DIFF: 99.48, DEA: 87.72). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel but is experiencing a short-term pullback. Based on recent highs and lows (low: 20,640, high: around 21,365), the resistance level is expected to be in the range of 21,350-21,550, and the support level in the range of 20,650-20,850.