China’s September die-casting zinc alloy exports soar almost 400% YoY while imports drop, what's the October outlook? [SMM analysis]

SMM News, October 21：

According to the latest customs data, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy in September stood at 3,792.09 mt, down 6.31% YoY, while exports reached 650.15 mt, surging 387.26% YoY.

Imports
In September, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy amounted to 3,792.09 mt, up 16.17% MoM but down 6.31% YoY. Cumulatively, from January to September, imports totaled 33,783.56 mt, a decrease of 2.64% YoY.

By trade flow, the top three source countries for China's unwrought zinc alloy imports in September were South Korea (1,191.506 mt, 31.42%), Australia (632.341 mt, 16.68%), and Malaysia (621.506 mt, 16.39%). MoM, Australia and Malaysia re-entered the top three, while Thailand and Japan—ranked second and third in August—imported only 0 mt and 0.002 mt, respectively, in September.

Exports

In September, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy totaled 650.15 mt, down 12.54% MoM but up 387.26% YoY. Cumulatively from January to September, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy reached 4,614.65 mt, up 27.06% YoY.

In September, the top three export destinations for China's unwrought zinc alloy were Taiwan, China (532.757 mt, 81.94%), Paraguay (40.087 mt, 6.17%), and Bangladesh (36.11 mt, 5.55%). After importing 532.422 mt in August, Taiwan, China imported 532.757 mt again in September, indicating sustained and stable local demand.

Outlook for China's Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Import and Export Trends

Import Side:

Currently, the pattern of LME outperforms SHFE continues, resulting in high import costs, which dampens the import willingness of domestic die-casting zinc alloy enterprises, traders, and end-use hardware producers. Additionally, domestic end-use consumption of die-casting zinc alloy remains relatively weak overall, with the proportionally significant real estate market still in a downturn. Against the backdrop of ample domestic supply, import demand lacks strong support.

Export Side:

However, from another perspective, the current SHFE/LME price ratio favors the export of domestic zinc products. According to SMM, there is certain demand for export orders in the die-casting zinc alloy market, but feedback from enterprises indicates that exporting requires relatively mature overseas markets or customer resources. Meanwhile, issues such as export procedures, transportation cycles, and payment settlements also affect the export willingness of domestic alloy plants. Overall, although there is some demand for China's die-casting zinc alloy in overseas markets, export volumes are expected to face challenges in achieving significant growth due to various constraints.