SMM Analysis:Exports of Galvanized Sheet Surprised on the Upside in September, What About October?

SMM October 20 News:

According to the latest customs data, in terms of galvanized sheet, exports in September 2025 reached 1.2262 million mt, while cumulative exports from January to September 2025 totaled 10.44 million mt, up 9.87% YoY compared with 9.506 million mt in the same period of 2024. Overall, domestic exports of galvanized sheet increased significantly in September compared with August, exceeding market expectations.

By country, the Philippines imported 152,600 mt of Chinese galvanized sheet in September, accounting for 12.45% and maintaining the top position; South Korea imported 127,300 mt, accounting for 10.4% and remaining in second place; Thailand imported 103,400 mt, accounting for 8.4% and holding the third position. In terms of changes, imports of Chinese galvanized sheet saw notable increases in countries such as Thailand, South Korea, Brazil, and the Philippines, while imports declined to varying degrees in Italy, Spain, Guatemala, and Belgium. Overall, China's galvanized sheet exports rose in September compared with August.

SMM believes that the MoM increase in galvanized sheet exports in September was driven by the following factors:

1. Announcement No. 17 of the State Taxation Administration, "Announcement on Optimizing Matters Related to Prepayment Corporate Income Tax Returns," officially took effect on October 1. This policy is expected to precisely curb the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms, prompting some galvanized sheet producers to rush to meet deadlines and ship before October, leading to an increase in shipments.

2. In addition, ferrous metals prices fell consistently in August, enhancing the price competitiveness of Chinese galvanized sheet and providing some support for export orders in September

Looking ahead to October, SMM understands that the widely watched tax announcement has not yet been accompanied by specific implementation measures, leading many market participants to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Coupled with the fact that some producers rushed shipments earlier, orders for forging or purchasing customs clearance documents are expected to decrease in October, and galvanized sheet export orders may pull back in the short term. Overall, galvanized sheet exports in October are likely to decline MoM compared with September.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)