National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): GDP Up 5.2% YoY in First Three Quarters, Industrial Value-Added Above Designated Size Grew 6.5% YoY in September

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on October 20, preliminary calculations show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 101.5036 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.2% YoY calculated at constant prices.

The Economy Operated Steadily with Progress in the First Three Quarters, Achieving Positive Results in High-Quality Development

In the first three quarters, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments thoroughly implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the efforts to foster a new pattern of development, earnestly implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, actively strengthened the domestic circulation, promoted positive interplay between domestic and international circulations, and solidly advanced high-quality development. The national economy withstood pressures and continued its steady and progressive development trend. Production and supply grew steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, new momentum grew steadily, and people's livelihoods were effectively guaranteed, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality in economic operations.

Preliminary calculations show that the GDP for the first three quarters was 101.5036 trillion yuan, up 5.2% YoY calculated at constant prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5.8061 trillion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; that of the secondary industry was 36.402 trillion yuan, up 4.9% YoY; and that of the tertiary industry was 59.2955 trillion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. By quarter, GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. On a quarterly sequential basis, GDP grew 1.1% in Q3.

I. Agricultural Production Was in Good Shape, and Animal Husbandry Grew Steadily

In the first three quarters, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) increased by 3.6% YoY. The total output of summer grain and early rice nationwide reached 178.25 million mt, an increase of 190,000 mt, or 0.1%, compared with the previous year. Autumn grain production was generally stable, and a good harvest is expected for the whole year. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat was 73.12 million mt, up 3.8% YoY. Specifically, the output of pork, beef, and poultry meat increased by 3.0%, 3.3%, and 7.2%, respectively, while mutton output decreased by 4.3%. Milk output grew by 0.7%, and egg output grew by 0.2%. At the end of Q3, the inventory of live pigs was 436.8 million heads, up 2.3% YoY. In the first three quarters, the number of live pigs slaughtered was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% YoY.

II. Industrial Production Grew Relatively Fast, with Equipment Manufacturing and High-Tech Manufacturing Showing Good Growth Momentum

In the first three quarters, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.2% YoY. By sector, the value added of mining increased by 5.8% YoY, that of manufacturing grew by 6.8%, and that of the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.0%. The value-added of equipment manufacturing increased by 9.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing rose by 9.6%, with growth rates 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points higher than the overall industrial enterprises above the designated size, respectively. By ownership type, the value-added of state-holding enterprises grew by 4.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.7%, and enterprises with foreign, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan investments rose by 4.1%; private enterprises grew by 6.1%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and NEVs increased by 40.5%, 29.8%, and 29.7% YoY, respectively. In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% YoY and 0.64% MoM. In September, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points. From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide reached 4,693 billion yuan, up 0.9% YoY.

III. Steady Growth in the Service Sector and Sound Development of Modern Services

In the first three quarters, the value-added of the service sector increased by 5.4% YoY. Among them, the value-added of information transmission, software and information technology services; leasing and business services; transport, storage and post; and wholesale and retail grew by 11.2%, 9.2%, 5.8%, and 5.6%, respectively. In September, the national service sector production index increased by 5.6% YoY. Among them, the production indices of information transmission, software and information technology services; financial services; leasing and business services; and transport, storage and post rose by 12.8%, 8.7%, 7.8%, and 5.7%, respectively. From January to August, the operating revenue of service enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.7% YoY. In September, the service sector business activity index was 50.1%, and the service sector business activity expectation index was 56.3%. Among them, the business activity indices of postal services, telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services remained in the high prosperity range above 60.0%.

IV. Steady Growth in Market Sales and Rapid Growth in Service Retail

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, up 4.5% YoY. By location of business units, retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas amounted to 31,683.8 billion yuan, up 4.4% YoY; retail sales in rural areas reached 4,903.9 billion yuan, up 4.6%. By consumption type, retail sales of goods were 32,488.8 billion yuan, up 4.6%; catering revenue was 4,098.9 billion yuan, up 3.3%. Sales of basic living and some upgraded goods showed good growth momentum, with retail sales of grain, oil, and food; sports, recreation, and entertainment articles; and gold, silver, and jewelry by enterprises above the designated size increasing by 10.4%, 19.6%, and 11.5%, respectively. The trade-in policy for consumer goods continued to show effects, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-video equipment, furniture, communication equipment, and cultural and office goods by enterprises above the designated size increasing by 25.3%, 21.3%, 20.5%, and 19.9%, respectively. National online retail sales reached 11,283 billion yuan, up 9.8% YoY. Online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 9,152.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 3.0% YoY but fell 0.18% MoM. In the first three quarters, retail sales of services grew 5.2% YoY, with notable increases in cultural and sports leisure services, communication and information services, tourism consulting and rental services, and transportation services.

V. Fixed-Asset Investment Remained Generally Stable with a Slight Decline, Manufacturing Investment Grew Rapidly

In the first three quarters, national fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 37,153.5 billion yuan, down 0.5% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 3.0%. By sector, infrastructure investment rose 1.1% YoY, manufacturing investment grew 4.0%, while real estate development investment declined 13.9%. The floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold nationwide was 658.35 million m², down 5.5% YoY; sales of newly built commercial buildings reached 6,304 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. By industry, investment in the primary industry increased 4.6% YoY, the secondary industry grew 6.3%, and the tertiary industry fell 4.3%. Private investment declined 3.1% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, it rose 2.1%. In high-tech industries, investment in information services, aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 33.1%, 20.6%, and 7.4% YoY, respectively. In September, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) fell 0.07% MoM.

VI. Sustained Growth in Goods Imports and Exports with Continued Optimization of Trade Structure

In the first three quarters, the total value of goods imports and exports was 33,607.8 billion yuan, up 4.0% YoY. Exports amounted to 19,945 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%, while imports totaled 13,662.9 billion yuan, down 0.2%. Imports and exports by private enterprises grew 7.8%, accounting for 57.0% of the total import and export value, up 2.0 percentage points from the same period last year. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries increased 6.2%. Exports of mechanical and electrical products rose 9.6%, accounting for 60.5% of total exports. In September, the total import and export value reached 4,043.6 billion yuan, up 8.0% YoY. Exports were 2,344.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, while imports totaled 1,699.1 billion yuan, up 7.5%.

VII. Core CPI Continued to Rebound, and the Decline in Industrial Producer Prices Narrowed

In the first three quarters, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% YoY. By category, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol dropped 0.8%, clothing prices rose 1.5%, housing prices increased 0.1%, prices for household goods and services went up 0.6%, prices for transportation and communication decreased 2.8%, prices for education, culture, and entertainment rose 0.8%, healthcare prices increased 0.5%, and prices for other goods and services surged 7.4%. Within food, tobacco, and alcohol prices, fresh vegetable prices fell 7.9%, pork prices dropped 2.9%, grain prices declined 1.2%, and fresh fruit prices rose 1.2%. In September, the national CPI decreased 0.3% YoY but increased 0.1% MoM. In the first three quarters, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.6% YoY, with the growth rate widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to H1. Specifically, core CPI in September increased 1.0% YoY, expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

In the first three quarters, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial producers fell 2.8% YoY. In September, it declined 2.3% YoY, with the rate of decrease narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and was flat MoM. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers dropped 3.2% YoY. In September, they fell 3.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and increased 0.1% MoM.

VIII. Employment Situation Remained Generally Stable, and the Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined

In the first three quarters, the national average urban surveyed unemployment rate stood at 5.2%. In September, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for the local registered labor force was 5.3%; for the migrant registered labor force, it was 4.9%, including 4.7% for the migrant agricultural registered labor force. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours for employed persons in national enterprises were 48.6 hours. At the end of Q3, the total number of migrant rural workers reached 191.87 million, up 0.9% YoY.

IX. Resident Income Grew Steadily, with Rural Residents' Income Growing Faster Than That of Urban Residents

In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, up 5.1% nominally YoY, and after adjusting for price factors, it increased 5.2% in real terms. By place of residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 42,991 yuan, up 4.4% nominally and 4.5% in real terms YoY; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 17,686 yuan, up 5.7% nominally and 6.0% in real terms YoY. From the perspective of income sources, the national per capita disposable income from wages and salaries, net business income, net property income, and net transfer income increased nominally by 5.4%, 5.3%, 1.7%, and 5.3%, respectively. The median per capita disposable income of the national population was 27,149 yuan, up 4.5% nominally YoY.

Overall, in the first three quarters, policies and measures to stabilize employment and the economy continued to take effect, major macro indicators remained generally stable, the economy maintained a steady and progressive trend, and positive results were achieved in high-quality development. However, it should also be noted that the current economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, with numerous external uncertainties and instabilities, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery and improvement still requires further consolidation. In the next stage, it is essential to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote the implementation and effectiveness of more proactive and impactful macro policies, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, solidly advance high-quality development, and promote sustained and healthy economic growth.

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