Copper Tube Underperforms in Peak Season

According to SMM data, the operating rate for copper pipe & tube enterprises in September was 67.68%, up 1.98 percentage points MoM and up 2.33 percentage points YoY. The copper pipe & tube market entered the peak season in H2 starting September, showing signs of an increasing operating rate MoM. However, on a YoY basis, the operating level in September this year did not see a significant rise compared to last year, mainly because OEMs also slowed down their production and cargo pick-up speed.

SMM estimates the operating rate for copper pipe & tube enterprises in October will be 67.34%, down 0.34 percentage points MoM and down 5.17 percentage points YoY. The noticeable YoY decline is primarily due to a significant drop in OEMs' production schedule for October compared to September. According to ChinaIOL data, the production schedules for household air conditioners in October 2025 are 556.5/5.96 million units for domestic sales/export, down 11.5%/9.4% YoY compared to the actual performance in the same period last year.

Moreover, without support from exports, domestic sales performance is also lackluster. The market is still actively digesting air conditioner inventory. Although national subsidies provide some assistance, they have not given OEMs the confidence to further increase production.

Raw material prices rose rapidly in October, leading to a decline in stockpiling sentiment among copper pipe & tube enterprises, and the National Day holiday period was 2-3 days longer YoY. The production schedules for household air conditioners in October 2025 are 556.5/5.96 million units for domestic sales/export, down 11.5%/9.4% YoY compared to the actual performance in the same period last year.

Overall operations in October were not ideal. However, it is currently understood that the US market remains relatively active in terms of operations. Under the impact of tariffs, exports of copper pipe & tube from China and Thailand to the US may both decline.