[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as it is Friday, trading volume is expected to increase WoW. However, if copper prices continue to approach 86,000 yuan/mt, spot premiums for SHFE copper may remain suppressed.

In North China today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 200-160 yuan/mt, averaging a discount of 180 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 85,120 to 85,480 yuan/mt, averaging 85,300 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The global copper scrap trade is entering a new cycle of restructuring. Over the past decade, the global trade network for copper scrap has been highly dependent on China. However, since China implemented the Solid Waste Import Ban in 2018, the global supply chain has been forced to reorganize, and a large volume of copper scrap has been redirected to Southeast Asian countries. By 2020, as Southeast Asian countries gradually tightened import controls, the global copper scrap market ongoing a “second phase of flow rebalancing.”

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $10,670/mt overnight, initially fluctuating downward to test a low of $10,615/mt, then the center of copper prices shifted upward to test a high of $10,706.5/mt, before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at $10,658.5/mt, up 0.59%, with trading volume reaching 16,000 lots and open interest reaching 317,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 85,280 yuan/mt overnight, immediately testing a low of 84,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices rose all the way to test a high of 85,730 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward and finally closing at 85,380 yuan/mt, up 0.46%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest reaching 234,000 lots.

China's copper pipe & tube imports in September totaled 817.4 mt, hitting the lowest level this year, down 27.46% MoM and 57.64% YoY, with a cumulative decline of 10.96% YoY. Exports of copper pipe & tube in September were 25,892.1 mt, down 11.44% MoM and 6.52% YoY, while cumulative exports increased 2.26% YoY.The import and export performance in September aligns with the August forecast, showing declines in both copper pipe & tube imports and exports.