Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: Post-Holiday Market Sees Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment, Lithium Carbonate Price Center Shifts Downward [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices stabilized after a continuous decline, with the price center shifting downward. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index stood at 73,064 yuan/mt, up 27 yuan/mt from the previous working day. Battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,400-73,600 yuan/mt, with an average of 73,000 yuan/mt, flat from the previous working day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,150-71,350 yuan/mt, averaging 70,750 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous working day. Lithium carbonate futures prices experienced sharp fluctuations, with the most-traded contract moving sideways within the range of 72,800-75,000 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, new production lines were commissioned in both the spodumene and salt lake sectors, and demand continued to improve, driving lithium chemical plants to maintain high operating rates. Total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to have further growth potential. On the demand side, major downstream sectors remained strong. The power battery sector benefited from rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEV markets, while the ESS sector continued to experience robust supply and demand, providing support for lithium carbonate demand.

Looking ahead, although lithium carbonate supply in October is expected to grow steadily, strong demand from the EV and ESS sectors is likely to push the market into a significant destocking phase. A temporary supply tightness is expected to form in the short term, providing some upward momentum for prices.