ILZSG: Global Refined Zinc and Lead Markets to Face Significant Supply Surplus in 2026

Published: Oct 14, 2025 10:52

Save

On Monday, October 13, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global refined zinc and refined lead markets are expected to face a significant supply surplus in 2026.

Lead

The group anticipates that global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 mt in 2025.

In 2026, the global refined lead surplus is projected to be slightly larger, reaching 102,000 mt.

ILZSG forecasts that global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 13.25 million mt this year and grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million mt in 2026. Global refined lead production is expected to climb 2% to 13.34 million mt in 2025 and increase 1% to 13.47 million mt in 2026.

Global lead mine supply is projected to grow 0.7% to 4.57 million mt in 2025 and increase 2.2% to 4.67 million mt in 2026.

The supply growth in 2026 will be driven by a rebound in production in Europe, China, as well as Australia and the US.

Zinc

Global refined zinc demand is expected to increase 1.1% to 13.71 million mt in 2025 and grow 1% to 13.86 million mt in 2026.

Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Global zinc production is forecast to further increase 2.4% to 14.13 million mt in 2026.

Global refined zinc supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, with a projected surplus of 85,000 mt. The refined zinc metal surplus in 2026 is forecast to reach 271,000 mt.

ILZSG noted that global zinc production will rise in 2026 due to increased supply of zinc concentrates, with production increases expected in Brazil, Canada, Norway, and China. The newly built Verkhny Ufaley smelter in Russia will also boost output.

ILZSG stated that after declines in 2023 and 2024, global zinc mine production is projected to grow 4.6% to 12.51 million mt in 2025, mainly driven by a 5% increase in production outside China.

Please note that this news is sourced from https://m-q-news.wenhua.com.cn/newshare/#/share/20251013000583?ver=7.4.3 and translated by SMM.

ILZSG

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

[SMM Flash] Sulphuric acid prices in some regions dropping below 1,000 yuan/mt

Since 10 July, SMM Chinese sulfuric acid price index from Copper smelters has declined for 11 consecutive weeks on a weekly basis. This weekend, sulphuric acid prices were further reduced in some regions, with the ex-works price of 98% smelting acid falling below 1,000 yuan/mt. However, demand from the fertiliser industry has yet to show any clear improvement, and there are no signs that exports of sulphuric acid and phosphate fertiliser can be restarted, leaving the market dominated by a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

1 hour ago

2 hours ago

[SMM Flash] China's Sulphuric Acid Production Data for August

NBS data shows that China's sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) production in August was 7.984 million mt, down 308,000 mt from 7.676 million mt in July, a YoY decrease of 15.5%. The cumulative production of sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) in 2026 was 68.141 million mt, a cumulative YoY decrease of 4.6%. The top five regions by production were Yunnan province (1.1927 million mt), Anhui province (698,700 mt), Shandong province (680,600 mt), Henan province (570,200 mt), and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (568,800 mt). For detailed data, please refer to SMM Data.

2 hours ago

[SMM Analysis] China Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Import and Export Data for August

In August 2026, China's total monthly sulphur imports were 272,323.414 mt in physical content, down 29.34% MoM and down 65.03% YoY, with the main import sources being the UAE, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines. China's total monthly sulphur exports were 48 mt in physical content, down 96.34% MoM and up 26.32% YoY, with the main export destinations being Indonesia and South Korea. China's total monthly sulphuric acid imports were 9,938.436 mt in physical content, up 831.85% MoM and up 1,051.37% YoY, with the main import sources being South Korea, Taiwan, China, Germany, and the US. China's total monthly sulphuric acid exports were 2,474.46 mt in physical content, up 153.47% MoM and down 99.43% YoY, with the main export destinations being Angola, Ghana, Cambodia, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Tanzania.

2 hours ago