[SMM Steel Import and Export Analysis] Exceeding Expectations with an Increase! Will Steel Exports Exceed 10 Million Next Month?

On October 13, customs data showed that China exported 10.465 million mt of steel in September 2025, up 955,000 mt MoM, an increase of 10.0% MoM. Cumulative steel exports from January to September totaled 87.955 million mt, up 9.2% YoY.

In September, China imported 548,000 mt of steel, up 48,000 mt MoM, an increase of 9.6% MoM. Cumulative steel imports from January to September reached 4.532 million mt, down 12.6% YoY.

• China's Steel Exports Continued to Increase MoM

China's total steel exports in September increased by 10% MoM, with the YoY growth rate also rising significantly. The reasons are twofold. First, according to SMM production schedule data, steel mills' hot-rolled coil export plans in September increased by 1.2% MoM. Second, as announced in the State Taxation Administration's Announcement No. 17 of 2025 regarding corporate income tax payment, new regulations will take effect starting the National Day holiday, further tightening the crackdown on fraudulent export tax rebate schemes. This prompted many export traders involved in such practices to arrange shipments in September. Driven by these two factors, steel export volume increased MoM.

• China's Steel Imports Remained Low in September

On the import side, China imported 548,000 mt of steel in September, maintaining a net export position. Net steel exports for the first nine months reached 83.423 million mt, remaining at a historically low level for the same period.

• Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.7%, down 0.2% MoM, indicating relatively steady recovery momentum in global manufacturing, though the recovery in Europe and the US was relatively weak. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index for China's manufacturing sector in September was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM.

Data from the World Steel Association shows that global crude steel production in August 2025 for the 70 countries reporting to the association was 145.3 million mt, up 0.3% YoY. Production in the rest of the world excluding China was 67.9 million mt, up 1.5% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.8 percentage points MoM.

As of September 30, 2025, FOB export quotes for hot-rolled coil from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $518/mt, $540/mt, and $485/mt, respectively, while China's FOB export quote for hot-rolled coil was $473/mt. Currently, China's hot-rolled coil export quotes are lower than those of other countries by $42/mt, $67/mt, and $12/mt, respectively. Compared to August, the price advantages changed by -12.50%, +11.67%, and +140% MoM.

According to the latest steel mill export order schedules from SMM, hot-rolled coil export plans for October increased by 8.4% MoM compared to the actual export volume in September. This was mainly due to improved export orders at some major mills following the earlier escalation of export fraud investigations in MD, combined with the expansion of Chinese steel mills' global sales channels, improved product quality, and enhanced overseas recognition since the beginning of the year. According to SMM shipping data, as of September 30, China's total steel product port departures in September reached 12.3042 million mt, up 2.17% MoM from August. Overall, due to the earlier factor of forging documents to meet shipping schedules, the volume of such documents relatively declined this month. However, considering that procurement demand received by steel mills increased in the past two months, SMM predicts that October exports will decline MoM, but the decrease may be limited. Meanwhile, regarding the widely noticed "Announcement on Optimizing Matters Related to Enterprise Income Tax Prepayment Declarations" effective from October 1, SMM survey indicates that no new implementation progress has been reported at northern ports so far, and quotes for forged documents seem to be re-emerging. In southern ports, due to more cumbersome procedures, tax-included exports remain dominant for now. SMM will continue to track further developments.

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