[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed's Month-End Interest Rate Cut Signals Strengthen, Consumption Underpins Aluminum Market with Support] According to night session data on October 14, the SHFE aluminum 2511 contract closed at 20,855 yuan/mt, down 0.36%, under short-term pressure at the 5-day daily average (MA5: 20,934) but above the 10-, 30-, and 60-day daily averages, with the medium and long-term trend still biased to the upside; trading volume (31,647 contracts) shrank below the average volume, indicating low market activity; the MACD indicator showed a negative DIF and positive DEA, with a slightly positive histogram, reflecting insufficient momentum. Referencing recent price highs and lows (such as the high near 21,005 and low near 19,200), the resistance zone is viewed at 20,950–21,000 (near the previous high and MA5), while the support zone is seen at 20,680–20,800 (near the intraday low and MA60). Overall, the market fluctuated rangebound, and the direction of a range breakout warrants attention.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Cast Aluminum Alloy Contract Fluctuated Rangebound, Spot Market Performed Firmly] Yesterday, aluminum prices recovered some of their losses, while the secondary aluminum market remained stable with a wait-and-see approach. The SMM ADC12 price held steady at 21,000 yuan/mt. Price adjustment sentiment was generally subdued. Currently, the availability of raw materials has not improved significantly, and enterprises continue to face cost pressure. At the same time, demand remains stable with a positive trend, providing support for prices. However, inventory pressure is exerting some downward pressure on prices. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material supply conditions, changes in social inventory, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed "Newcomer" Supports Additional Interest Rate Cuts This Year, Aluminum Market Shows High Fluctuation Trend] SHFE aluminum 2511 contract closed at 20,975 yuan/mt, up 0.55%. MA indicators show that MA5 (20,973), MA10 (20,972), and MA30 (20,971.83) are highly convergent with the closing price, indicating a rangebound fluctuation pattern; open interest decreased by 3,512 lots, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors; in the MACD indicator, DIFF (0.4192) and DEA (0.2244) maintain a golden cross, but the MACD histogram shortened to 0.3898, indicating weakened upward momentum. The technical picture shows a fluctuating but upward bias, with key resistance around the 21,050-21,100 yuan/mt range, and support levels shifting upward to 20,880-20,920 yuan/mt (night session low and dense moving average area). Breakout direction within the range needs monitoring. Macro front: 2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson hinted that she favors two additional 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, as monetary policy should be formulated ignoring the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. (Bullish ★) Domestically, China's special port fee on US vessels takes effect today. The General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued the "Implementation Measures for Collecting Special Port Fees on US Vessels," stating that vessels engaged in international maritime transport, berthing at Chinese ports, and meeting one of the following conditions shall pay a special port fee. (Bearish ★)

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Price Difference Between A00 Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap Contracts, Strong Expectations Remain in Aluminum Scrap Market] On Monday, the SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 180 yuan/mt to 20,800 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while the SMM ADC12 price dropped by 100 yuan/mt to 21,000 yuan/mt. Affected by escalating tariff conflicts, aluminum prices experienced a significant correction, driving down aluminum scrap prices and causing a slight loosening on the cost side. Most secondary aluminum markets lowered prices by 100 yuan/mt, though some enterprises, due to optimistic expectations for the future or being impacted by low raw material and finished product inventories, chose to temporarily hold steady and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Indonesia's strategic transformation from bauxite exporter to integrated aluminum producer is encountering significant headwinds in 2025. Market analysis reveals a growing disparity between readily available bauxite supply and the slower-than-anticipated operationalization of alumina refineries, creating temporary market imbalances that require strategic navigation. Seven major refinery projects face implementation hurdles, primarily due to funding constraints, delaying the full realization of Indonesia's downstream ambitions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: U.S.-China Tariff Conflict Intensifies, Cast Aluminum Alloy's Most-Traded Contract Closed Lower Under Pressure Last Friday] On the macro front, the U.S.-China trade war reignited, putting nonferrous metals futures under pressure. Fundamentally, last week's supply tightness and price strength drove...

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US-China Tariff Disputes Resurface, Aluminum Prices to Remain Under Pressure in the Short Term] The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract declined during the night session on October 10, closing at 20,755 yuan/mt, down 1.59%. The MA indicators show that MA5 (20,766), MA10 (20,764), and MA30 (20,764) are all above the closing price, with the short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating price pressure; open interest decreased by 11,501 lots, reflecting low market participation and limited downward momentum; in the MACD indicator, both DIF and DEA are negative, and the MACD histogram is -0.9044, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend. SHFE aluminum broke below key levels during the night session, with a bearish technical outlook. The key resistance level is 21,050-21,100 yuan/mt, which poses strong resistance; the primary support below is the night session low of 20,730 yuan/mt, and if breached, prices may test the 20,600-20,700 range. On the macro front: China has taken note of the US announcement of plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US actions severely harm China's interests and undermine the atmosphere of bilateral economic and trade talks, to which China firmly objects. However, on the evening of October 12, US Vice President Vance, in an interview regarding Trump's latest tariff threats, signaled some moderation. Vance stated during the program: "Trump is willing to engage in rational negotiations with China. (Bearish ★)

Following the 8-day Double Festival holiday, SMM monitored the changes in China's aluminum ingot and aluminum billet inventories before and after the National Day holiday. In 2025, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by a total of 57,000 mt, a rise of 9.6%, while the aluminum billet inventory increased by 24,000 mt, up 20.9%. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and billets accumulated by 81,000 mt, an increase of 11.5%. The inventory buildup was generally in line with pre-holiday expectations, with no significant surprises. In early October, the domestic primary aluminum industry chain inventory exhibited the core characteristics of "controllable total volume and regional divergence," with specific analysis as follows...

Indonesia's reinstatement of the mandatory annual RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) approval cycle, effective October 2025, marks a decisive policy reversal to assert direct state control over the mining sector. This shift from three-year planning aims to manage the structural oversupply in the bauxite market where prices of USD 28-30 reflect a 25-30% discount to the official benchmark by enabling precise annual production quotas. The government intends to use this tool to align bauxite output with the scheduled commissioning of 7-8 new alumina refineries requiring over 20 million tons of annual input, thereby forcing market rebalancing and accelerating downstream integration. The success of this high-stakes strategy hinges on mitigating its inherent risks: eroded investor confidence from regulatory volatility and industry consolidation that could reduce market participants by 30-40%, potentially undermining the capital investment required for a globally competitive downstream industry.