[SMM Analysis] Review of the Sheets & Plates Market During the 2025 National Day Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

During the National Day & Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, HRC prices in major cities across the country remained stable.

On the first trading day after the holiday, in east China, offers in Shanghai and Zhangjiagang rose slightly by 10-20 yuan/mt compared to pre-holiday levels. Inquiry activity in the market was weak, with end-users showing strong wait-and-see sentiment. In Ningbo, spot cargo was quoted at 3,360-3,370 yuan/mt by the end of the session, up 10-20 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Traders actively sold cargo, but trading activity was moderate, with some end-users showing limited purchasing enthusiasm.

In the southern market, offers in Lecong on the 9th were 3,330-3,340 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Overall trading activity was moderate, with some end-users conducting restocking. Most traders were on holiday during the break, resulting in average sales performance.

In the northern market, overall trading activity for hot-rolled coil in mainstream markets on the 9th was average. In Tangshan, spot offers were 3,300 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Trading activity was moderate, with downstream purchases showing limited initiative. In Shenyang, spot offers were 3,320 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Hot-rolled coil trading performance was average.

In the cold-rolled market, on the 9th, Bensteel Group’s cold-rolled DC01 1.0 in Shanghai was quoted at 3,830 yuan/mt, down slightly by 10 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Price fluctuations were relatively small compared to pre-holiday levels, and trading activity was average, with no significant improvement.

Looking ahead, on the first trading day after the holiday, the social inventory of hot-rolled coil (HRC) in 86 national warehouses (large sample) surveyed by SMM totaled 4.0965 million mt, up 457,900 mt (12.58% MoM) WoW but down 5.45% YoY. By region, south China and north China recorded the largest increases, both exceeding 15%, while east China, central China, and north-east China saw increases below 10%. During the holiday, national social inventory accumulated significantly, with the accumulation rate higher than the same period last year, bringing inventory levels close to last year's. Market participants will monitor demand recovery and inventory drawdown pace over the next one to two weeks after the holiday. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to remain weak, with the most-traded contract fluctuating in the 3,230–3,330 range.