Goldman Sachs: Pessimistic Outlook, Aluminum Prices to Drop Further

Published: Oct 9, 2025 15:30

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Goldman Sachs holds a relatively pessimistic view on future aluminum prices: LME aluminum prices are expected to decline from the current $2,700 per metric ton to a low of $2,350 per metric ton in Q4 2026, though this projected low is higher than the previous forecast of $2,100 for March 2026.
As the market surplus expands from 400,000 metric tons in 2025 to 1.5–2 million metric tons from 2026 to 2027, aluminum prices are expected to continue falling. Increased production in Indonesia will limit upside room for aluminum prices, which are not anticipated to rebound to $2,650 per metric ton before 2030.

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