[SMM Analysis]Tight Aluminum Scrap Supply Lifts Price Center, Highlighting Resilience in ADC12 Cost Support

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Tightening Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Domestic Aluminum Ingot Destocking Support Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well]

[SMM Analysis]Imports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Rebounded MoM in September 2025 but Remained in a Downward Cycle YoY [SMM Analysis]

September 2025 prebaked anode export volume showed relatively small fluctuations compared to the previous month. Specifically, export orders to Canada, the UAE, Indonesia, and Germany saw significant increases, each rising by over 10,000 mt, with a total increase exceeding 57,600 mt. However, orders to Malaysia, Spain, Iceland, and Saudi Arabia declined substantially, with reductions of over 9,000 mt each and a total decrease of around 48,100 mt. Price-wise, prebaked anode export prices increased in September, with the average export price up 19.40% YoY. Supported by rising raw material prices in the domestic market, prebaked anode prices continued to climb in October. According to the SMM survey, export order prices in October were predominantly higher, with adjustments mainly in the range of $10-20/mt. Overall, current prebaked anode export orders demonstrate ample resilience, and the upward price trend remains solid. With ongoing expansion in overseas aluminum capacity and China's cost advantages in the industry chain, the broad prospects of the overseas market will provide sustained momentum for the growth of China's prebaked anode exports.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bulls Increase Positions and Moving Average Support, the Most-Traded Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Contract Expected to Hold Up Well in the Short Term] Aluminum prices edged up slightly yesterday, with the SMM ADC12 price holding steady at 21,100 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, providing solid cost support. Some enterprises have seen a decline in operating rates due to raw material shortages, losses, or policy uncertainties, resulting in low finished product inventories at plants. Quotations remain firm or actively follow the upward trend. Although demand has not shown significant improvement compared to September, it remains resilient overall, providing support for prices. However, high social inventory and warrant pressure may limit upside room, while attention should be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with a focus on raw material circulation, demand performance, and inventory changes.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Global Supply-Demand Fundamentals Tighten, Aluminum Prices Expected to Hold Up Well in the Short Term] On the night of October 22, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,105 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,180 yuan/mt and the lowest price at 21,085 yuan/mt, finally closing at 21,105 yuan/mt, up 0.42%. The night session overall showed a pattern of retreat after rapid rise, with the trading center moving up to around 21,100 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the MA averages realigned into a bullish formation (MA5: 21,098 > MA10: 21,048 > MA30: 20,981 > MA60: 20,960), and the MACD 60-minute candlestick showed a slight expansion of the red bar, maintaining a golden cross. In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Considering recent highs and lows (the monthly low at 20,640, the high around 21,200), the resistance is expected to be in the range of 21,280–21,480, and support in the range of 20,530–20,750.

On Monday, October 20, data released by the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) showed that global primary aluminum production in September increased by 0.9% YoY to 6.08 million mt, with daily average production at 202,700 mt.