[SMM Analysis: Post-Holiday Lead Ingot Social Inventory Declines Instead of Increasing, Hitting a New Low in Over a Year]

SMM October 9: According to SMM, as of October 9, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions stood at 36,900 mt, a decrease of 9,500 mt from September 25 and down 5,200 mt from September 29.

In September, lead smelters were generally in a state of production reduction or shutdown. Prior to the National Day holiday, downstream enterprises actively stockpiled lead ingots. In addition to spot lead ingots available before the holiday, downstream companies also pre-purchased a certain quantity of lead ingot supplies for use during and after the holiday. As a result, downstream enterprises gradually picked up goods during the holiday period, leading to a decline in social inventory of lead ingots compared to pre-holiday levels, reaching the lowest point since September 5, 2024.

Moreover, with only four trading days remaining until the delivery of the SHFE lead 2510 contract, attention should be paid to the possibility of an increase in visible inventory of lead ingots due to the transfer of delivery brand lead ingots to delivery warehouses. At the same time, secondary lead smelters are expected to resume production after the holiday in October, coupled with the anticipated arrival of imported lead. The social inventory of lead ingots may shift to an increasing trend next week.

Data Source Statement: Data not from public sources are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.