SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in September 2025 and Forecast for October

SMM's monthly production data for various metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

Copper Cathode

SMM China's copper cathode production in September decreased significantly by 50,500 mt MoM, down 4.31%, but increased 11.62% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September increased by 1.0955 million mt YoY, up 12.22%.

The significant MoM decline in copper cathode production is attributed by SMM to the following reasons: 1) The number of smelters undergoing maintenance increased in September, with five smelters having maintenance plans, involving 1 million mt of smelting capacity; the production loss due to maintenance rose compared to the previous month, with an actual impact of 18,300 mt. 2) Tight supply of copper anodes remained a major factor for the production decline. Most enterprises reported difficulty in purchasing copper anodes. Due to unclear subsidy policies for copper scrap in Anhui and Jiangxi, scrap-derived copper anode producers were forced to widely purchase VAT-invoiced copper scrap. However, VAT-invoiced copper scrap prices were high and supply was limited, forcing some enterprises to cut production.

In summary, the operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in September was 84.06%, down 3.91 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the operating rate for large smelters was 88.20% (down 3.13 percentage points MoM), for medium-sized smelters was 78.92% (down 7.36 percentage points MoM), and for small smelters was 59.89% (up 0.28 percentage points MoM). The operating rate for smelters primarily using copper concentrates was 88.6% (down 3.5 percentage points MoM), while for smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anodes, it was 62.3% (down 5.8 percentage points MoM).

Entering October, according to SMM statistics, six smelters are scheduled for maintenance, involving 1.4 million mt of smelting capacity; the production impact from maintenance is expected to increase significantly compared to September, reaching 47,300 mt. The significant impact from maintenance in October was primarily due to large-scale maintenance at a smelter in northern China, while other smelters underwent routine maintenance. Most enterprises indicated that limited supply of copper anode remained the main reason for the decline in copper cathode production during the maintenance period. The impact of Document No. 770 (2025) from the National Development and Reform Commission on October production remains unclear for now. The operating rate of smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode in October is projected at 62.5%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. The slight increase is mainly due to production ramp-up at some enterprises.

Based on production schedules from various companies, SMM expects domestic copper cathode production in October to decrease by 38,500 mt, or 3.43% MoM, but increase by 86,800 mt, or 8.72% YoY. Cumulative production from January to October is projected to rise by 1.1823 million mt, or 11.87% YoY. The operating rate of sampled enterprises in the copper cathode industry in October is projected at 81.11%, down 2.94 percentage points MoM. Specifically, large smelters will record an operating rate of 83.65% (down 4.55 percentage points MoM), medium smelters 78.56% (down 0.36 percentage points MoM), and small smelters 64.22% (up 4.33 percentage points MoM). The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrates is projected at 85.0%, down 3.6 percentage points MoM, while that for smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode is estimated at 62.5%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect November production may continue to decline, as five smelters have maintenance plans and copper anode supply is expected to remain tight. Additionally, with copper prices rising sharply, TC/RC remaining low, and sulphuric acid prices showing signs of decline, smelters' willingness to ramp up production in Q4 has weakened.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in September 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.14% YoY but decreased by 3.18% MoM. As September entered the traditional peak season, the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded slightly, with the industry's liquid aluminum ratio rising by 1.2 percentage points MoM to 76.3%. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in September decreased by 8.67% YoY and decreased by 7.94% MoM to around 857,000 mt.

Capacity Changes: By the end of September, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.84 million mt (SMM made revisions after taking into account capacity replacement situations and old plant demolitions, eliminating some double-counted capacity). China's operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.06 million mt. Domestic operating aluminum capacity saw a slight increase MoM in September, and the industry operating rate also increased slightly MoM, primarily due to: the Phase II replacement projects in Shandong and Yunnan successively starting pots and commissioning; and previous technological transformation projects in Guangxi successively starting pots and resuming production.

Production Forecast: Entering October 2025, the commissioning of replacement projects and production resumptions from technological transformation projects are expected to further increase aluminum production. Daily average aluminum production is expected to achieve growth. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, some northern enterprises currently report increased plans for direct sales of liquid aluminum, while individual southern enterprises said downstream aluminum billet enterprises plan to purchase less liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rebound by 1 percentage point to 77.3%. Subsequent attention should be paid to the actual demand situation during the peak season, and the shutdown plans for old capacity and commissioning plans for new capacity in replacement projects.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in September 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.52% MoM and increased by 10.00% YoY. By the end of September, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was about 110.32 million mt, and the actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% MoM, with an operating rate of 80.23%.

Daily average alumina production achieved a slight increase, but the growth rate was suppressed, mainly affected by the following factors: at the beginning of the month, due to the "September 3rd military parade" event, some alumina refineries in the north periodically reduced the load of roasting furnaces during the parade period; simultaneously, some enterprises in the south conducted planned routine maintenance, which also reduced the roasting load; additionally, falling alumina prices narrowed corporate profit margins, leading to low enthusiasm for production increases.

By region:

In September, there was a significant price spread between the north and south in the domestic alumina market. Early in the month, routine maintenance at enterprises in south China led to a slight tightening of supply, which supported prices and kept them firm. By mid-to-late month, as supply recovered, supplemented by imported alumina and the "north-to-south cargo flow," sellers in the south showed slightly less willingness to hold firm on prices. Under pressure from lower-priced supplies from the north and imports, spot alumina prices in the south declined. However, profitability of alumina capacity in the south remained favorable, and no production cuts by enterprises have been reported so far.

In contrast, offers in the northern market remained under pressure throughout the month, maintaining a downward trend. Entering October, the monthly average price is expected to fall below the cash cost of high-cost enterprises, and some companies are likely to face losses and implement production cuts.

Outlook for next month: The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in October. After entering October, the monthly average price is projected to come under pressure and decline, gradually approaching the cost line. Some high-cost enterprises will face losses and may proactively implement production cuts for maintenance. As supply contracts, the current surplus situation is expected to ease somewhat. However, since supply-demand adjustments take time, prices are likely to remain in the doldrums overall. Operating alumina capacity is expected to decrease in October, with industry-wide operating capacity projected at around 88.98 million mt.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in September 2025 increased 2.9% YoY; the average monthly operating rate was 88.7%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM but up 0.3 percentage point YoY. Cumulative production through September increased 2.9% YoY.

In August, Century Aluminium in the US announced the restart of a production line with approximately 50,000 mt capacity at its Mt. Holly facility in South Carolina, bringing the plant's annual production to 220,000 mt. The new pots are expected to produce their first output in Q1 2026 and reach full capacity by the end of Q2 2026.

At South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique, Africa, due to delays in reaching agreements with the government and energy supplier HCB, South32 announced plans to place Mozal under care and maintenance in March 2026. The company expects its share production for FY26 (July 1, 2025–June 30, 2026) to decrease to approximately 240,000 mt (compared to 355,000 mt in FY25).

Alcoa announced that the restart, previously delayed by a nationwide power outage in spring, resumed progress in August. The company's earlier target was to gradually complete the restart and increase operating rates by mid-2026.

Looking ahead to October, no further aluminum enterprises are currently expected to commission, resume, or cut production. Overseas aluminum operating rates in October are projected at approximately 88.8%, up 0.1 percentage point MoM and 0.6 percentage points YoY.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 increased 7.4% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.1%, up 0.5% MoM and 2.3% YoY. Cumulative production through August increased 4.2% YoY.

This month's increase was mainly driven by Indonesia: the Phase III (1 million mt/year) of PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), commissioned in June under Nanshan Holding, is steadily ramping up and is expected to reach full capacity by year-end, after which the Phase IV (1 million mt/year) commissioning plan will commence immediately.

In Australia, on September 16, Alcoa signed a $30 million funding agreement with Western Gas, aimed at securing long-term and stable natural gas supply for its alumina refining operations in Western Australia to address future energy challenges. The agreement is expected to meet approximately 25% of Alcoa's long-term natural gas requirements for alumina processing across all its refineries in Western Australia. On September 29, US aluminum producer Alcoa Corp announced the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia. The refinery had been idled since June 2024, and the permanent shutdown is expected to have no immediate impact on the global supply and demand balance.

In Asia, on September 10, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced the successful completion of the debottlenecking project at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery. The project included the addition of a third ball mill, enabling the refinery to adjust its bauxite procurement sources and reduce reliance on Guinea, thereby further enhancing the company's operational stability. Upon completion, the project increased the refinery's annual alumina capacity by up to 50,000 mt.

Looking ahead to October, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 5.7% YoY, with the operating rate reaching 82.2%, up 0.15% MoM and 1.1% YoY.

Primary Lead

China's primary lead production in September 2025 increased slightly, up 0.94 percentage points MoM and 12.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Cumulative primary lead production from January to September 2025 rose by 8.68 percentage points YoY.

Reportedly, production changes at primary lead smelters in September were largely offsetting, resulting in minimal net change in output. During the month, routine maintenance at lead smelters in Central and North China, or production cuts due to undersupply of lead concentrates, resulted in a reduction exceeding 10,000 mt. Simultaneously, smelters in Central and Northeast China resumed operations after maintenance. Furthermore, as lead prices fluctuated upward and breached the 17,000 yuan per mt level, and particularly as the price of silver—a by-product of lead smelting—repeatedly reached new record highs, smelters in South China showed improved production enthusiasm, with some enterprises gradually increasing output, contributing an increment also exceeding 10,000 mt. Consequently, overall primary lead production registered only a minor increase.

Looking ahead to October, as Q4 begins, lead smelters will enter the traditional winter stockpiling period. However, due to strong demand in the lead concentrate market this year, smelters began stockpiling lead ore as early as August. Coupled with silver prices repeatedly hitting new highs, negotiating prices for high-silver-content lead concentrates has become particularly challenging, leading to a further decline in lead concentrate TCs. Quotations for a few imported ores have already reached negative $170/dmt. Looking at the production plans of lead smelters, medium and large smelters in central and northern China are expected to resume production after completing maintenance in September, which will bring a certain degree of production increase. As it is Q4, some enterprises have plans to boost annual production and sales, especially during periods when lead prices and by-products such as silver rise, which can further enhance production enthusiasm. Even though some medium and large enterprises plan maintenance in October, it will not change the upward trend in production for the month. Overall, SMM expects primary lead production in October to increase by about 2 percentage points MoM.

Secondary Lead

In September 2025, secondary lead production showed a downward trend, decreasing 0.99% MoM but increasing 5.52% YoY; secondary refined lead production fell 4.85% MoM and decreased 6.11% YoY.

In early September, the SCO Summit combined with military parade activities led to a slowdown in business for some recyclers in northern China, causing regional tightening in scrap battery supply. At the same time, due to lack of confidence in end-use consumption and a bearish outlook on lead prices, smelters in Hebei cut production, while a large smelter in Inner Mongolia entered a shutdown for maintenance. In east China, individual smelters halted production from early September due to equipment maintenance. In south-west China, a large smelter completed equipment maintenance and resumed production in early September. In late September, consumption of lead-acid batteries for two-wheel bicycles improved, and lead prices fluctuated upward, leading some secondary lead smelters in east China to increase production. Overall, the production resumptions and increases offset the declines from production cuts and maintenance, resulting in a smaller-than-expected drop in secondary refined lead production in September.

In early October, the National Day & Mid-Autumn Festival holidays led most secondary lead smelters to schedule production resumptions for mid-October. Full production output is expected only by late October after oven drying, contributing weakly to October's production. Additionally, as some enterprises remain cautious about improved consumption of lead-acid batteries downstream, actual production resumptions are closely linked to lead price trends, scrap battery supply, and smelting profits.

Refined Zinc

SMM China's refined zinc production in September 2025 decreased by about 4% MoM, but was up over 20% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September increased by nearly 9% YoY, falling below expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in September was basically flat MoM. Entering September, output from domestic smelters declined. In addition to routine maintenance in regions such as Hunan and Inner Mongolia, unexpected maintenance in Henan and Guangxi contributed to the reduction. Meanwhile, maintenance resumptions and production increases in Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei provided some incremental output. Overall, September production showed a significant decrease.

SMM expects China's refined zinc production in October 2025 to increase by 4% MoM and 22% YoY, with cumulative production from January to October projected to rise by 10% YoY. Major smelter maintenance in October is concentrated in Henan, Hunan, Gansu, and Jiangxi, with additional reductions from Shaanxi and Sichuan. Increments mainly come from maintenance resumptions in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangxi, and Hunan. Overall production is expected to increase MoM, but raw material issues for smelters are becoming prominent. Declining domestic TC and lower sulphuric acid prices are squeezing smelter profits. At the same time, rising prices of recycled raw materials and resulting losses have led some secondary zinc smelters to voluntarily reduce output, overall limiting the extent of the production increase.

Refined Tin

Based on SMM's data processed from market communication, China's refined tin production in September 2025 decreased by 31.71% MoM, but increased by 0.1% YoY. This production decline was mainly influenced by maintenance shutdowns at some enterprises. Analysis by region is as follows:

According to General Administration of Customs data, China's imports of tin concentrates in physical content reached 10,267 mt in August 2025, flat MoM. Imports from the DRC, Russia, and Bolivia declined, but the overall volume remained at normal levels, affected only by shipping schedules and other transportation factors. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar rebounded. With the approval of mining licenses, short-term supply shows signs of improvement. Imports of tin ore from other regions and countries remained at previous levels.

Yunnan: Tin concentrate TCs for 40% grade in Yunnan stayed low. Domestic smelters' raw material inventory generally fell below 30 days, some enterprises underwent maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate dropped further. Smelters that halted for maintenance are expected to gradually resume production in October, so overall tin ingot output in Yunnan is projected to rebound in October.

Jiangxi: Breakdown of scrap supply chain: The tin scrap recycling system was under pressure, secondary material circulation in the market decreased by over 30%, and undersupply of crude tin directly limited growth in refined production. Some smelters slightly cut production this month, while others maintained normal output.

Other regions: Shortage of dual raw materials: Both tin concentrate and tin scrap supplies were weak, operating rates remained below 70% of planned capacity for an extended period, planned maintenance at some enterprises further suppressed output, and operating rates at some smelters already fell to yearly lows.

Based on SMM calculations, refined tin production in October is expected to rebound by 36.92% MoM. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi completed maintenance shutdowns.

Refined Nickel

In September 2025, SMM's refined nickel production increased by 1% MoM and 13% YoY, with cumulative growth up 24% YoY. The operating rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises was 66%. The operating rate remained stable in September, with each producer operating normally according to production plans. New domestic refined nickel projects were delayed, and overall refined nickel output showed no significant fluctuations. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in September was 122,623 yuan/mt, up 678 yuan/mt MoM, indicating a slight rise. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel in September was 2,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM. The premium/discount range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was -150-200 yuan/mt, lower than the previous month. On the demand side, downstream demand in September fell short of expectations. Spot trading volume recovered slightly compared to August, but procurement enthusiasm remained low, with stockpiling only occurring when nickel prices were at relatively low levels.

In the near term, refined nickel production is unlikely to see a significant increase due to tight supply of intermediate raw materials and temporary delays in new refined nickel projects. Refined nickel production in October is expected to increase slightly by 2% MoM.

NPI

In September 2025, China's NPI production by physical content increased by 3.63% MoM, while metal content decreased by 9.31% MoM. Nationwide NPI physical content rose MoM, but metal content declined. Throughout September, NPI prices remained high and continued a slow upward trend. However, due to reduced procurement from downstream and some smelters cutting production amid high inventory, high-grade NPI output decreased, leading to a reduction in the metal content of national NPI production. Supply side, Philippine ore prices held steady in September, while core costs such as auxiliary materials and electricity prices continued to rise. NPI smelters remained in a state of losses, providing bottom support for NPI prices. As it is the traditional peak season, most NPI smelters maintained a firm stance on prices. Demand side, stainless steel production increased MoM during the peak season, but the growth in 300-series stainless steel output fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises had sufficient stockpiles, leading to a decline in market procurement during the month. On the other hand, although consumption saw some growth during the peak season, finished stainless steel prices showed little sign of recovery. Low profits in downstream stainless steel suppressed the rise in NPI prices. Overall, firm cost lines provided bottom support, but consumption growth was hard to find, and downstream profits capped gains. High-grade NPI smelters struggled with destocking and reduced output in September, while increased production of 200-series stainless steel drove growth in low-grade NPI output.

Looking ahead, as peak season support weakens and high-grade NPI prices turn downward, SMM expects high-grade NPI production to continue declining in October. However, due to continued production increases in 200-series stainless steel, low-grade NPI output is forecast to rebound MoM. SMM projects China's NPI production in October to increase by 1.39% MoM in physical content and decrease by 0.43% MoM in metal content.

Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron

In September 2025, Indonesian NPI production physical content increased 0.78% MoM, and its metal content rose 1.42% MoM. In September, the NPI price center remained high, Indonesian smelters continued to be profitable, and downstream demand also grew during the traditional peak season, leading to increases in both the physical content and metal content of Indonesian NPI production.

Looking ahead, in October, Indonesian stainless steel production schedules continued to grow MoM, and new stainless steel capacity is expected to be put into operation by the end of October, increasing demand for NPI. Amid overall demand growth, SMM expects Indonesian NPI physical content to rise 1.57% MoM and its metal content to increase 0.98% MoM in October 2025.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, in September 2025, SMM nickel sulphate production is expected to reach approximately 34,000 mt in metal content, corresponding to a physical content production of about 154,400 mt, up about 11.45% MoM and 4.75% YoY. Demand side, during the September-October peak season for auto sales, downstream raw material stocking demand increased in September, and nickel salt procurement volume grew. Supply side, some nickel salt enterprises saw production growth due to toll processing orders, while integrated enterprises increased nickel sulphate stockpiling efforts due to growing precursor orders, leading to an increase in market nickel salt supply. Looking ahead to the October market, nickel sulphate raw material supply is tight, but precursor plants' demand for nickel salt showed no significant pullback, coupled with some producers having production resumption plans. Nickel sulphate supply is expected to continue growing slightly. In October, SMM nickel sulphate production is projected to increase to approximately 35,700 mt in metal content, with physical content production expected to be 162,200 mt, up about 5.07% MoM and approximately 24.26% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In September 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production showed significant growth MoM, with a certain increase on a YoY basis as well. Supply side, manganese salt producers had strong production scheduling intentions overall this month. As the traditional September-October peak consumption season approached, market stockpiling demand gradually released, directly driving an increase in the scale of long-term contract execution for high-purity manganese sulphate. Market activity significantly improved, further prompting a noticeable increase in supply volume for the month, with outstanding MoM growth performance. At the same time, all producers steadily advanced long-term contract delivery work, and inventory levels were mostly drawn down to low ranges. Additionally, compounded by the sharp rise in cobalt prices, downstream markets are concerned about further potential price increases, leading to stockpiling behavior. This phenomenon has also boosted procurement enthusiasm to some extent, resulting in a slight supply shortage and a tense market situation. Looking ahead to October 2025, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to maintain steady growth, which is likely to further boost the production scale of manganese salt plants. Overall, high-purity manganese sulphate production in October is projected to achieve MoM growth again, with the YoY growth rate remaining at a certain level.

EMD

In September 2025, EMD production showed a slight increase MoM. First, the primary battery market entered its peak demand season, with EMD producers focusing on ensuring the delivery of existing orders while also securing some new orders. This directly boosted production of carbon-zinc and alkaline manganese batteries, thereby supporting the increase in EMD output. Second, the competitive landscape in the LMO market, which uses MnO2 for LMO battery, has intensified. To reduce costs, many enterprises are switching to the more cost-effective Mn3O4 as an alternative raw material, leading to a decline in demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery. As a result, production schedules for this type remained stable without growth. Looking ahead to October 2025, driven by the traditional September-October peak season and continued positive factors from a macro perspective in the manganese market, EMD producers are expected to further expand their production schedules, with a high likelihood of additional new orders. Therefore, total EMD production in October 2025 is projected to continue its growth trend.

Mn3O4

In September 2025, Mn3O4 production showed a slight increase MoM. From a product grade perspective, both electronic-grade and battery-grade Mn3O4 production achieved some growth. First, LMO market demand showed signs of growth in September 2025, leading to increased procurement of raw material battery-grade Mn3O4 in downstream sectors, which directly boosted the production schedules of Mn3O4 producers. Second, the future development potential of the Mn3O4 industry is relatively promising. Some manganese sulphate producers have begun planning for new capacity, while some LMO enterprises are extending their reach upstream in the industry chain by starting their own Mn3O4 production, making the sources of market growth more diverse. Third, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market has entered its traditional peak consumption season, with some increase in market demand. Looking ahead to October 2025, the Mn3O4 market is expected to maintain a positive trend. With the recovery in the LMO market, it will further boost the demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, thereby driving up its production schedule. The total production of Mn3O4 in October 2025 is projected to continue its upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

According to SMM statistics, the total production of high-carbon ferrochrome in September 2025 was 793,700 mt, down 1.9% MoM from August. The main reason was that some producers in north China's Inner Mongolia region implemented production halts or cuts, resulting in actual production falling short of expectations, down 3.5% MoM. In contrast, southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi utilized the advantage of low electricity prices during the rainy season and peak-shaving production, leading to a slight increase in production of 0.53% MoM. As the traditional September-October peak season for consumption officially began, the downstream stainless steel market showed signs of recovery, with planned production further increasing, driving sustained growth in purchase demand for raw material ferrochrome. Meanwhile, raw material inventories at some steel mills were relatively tight, leading to frequent inquiries and purchase activities. Robust demand supported both ferrochrome prices and production at high levels. In September, the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome rose by 300 yuan to 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), slightly exceeding market expectations of an increase of 100-200 yuan. Producer confidence was significantly boosted, and with expanded profit margins, production enthusiasm was high, with most operating at full capacity. Additionally, a sharp decline in imported ferrochrome stimulated domestic producers to actively produce and capture market share, keeping operating rates at relatively high levels. Overall, domestic ferrochrome production mainly fluctuated at highs.

Looking ahead to October, ferrochrome production may hit a new high. On September 23, Tsingshan announced the October tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 200 yuan MoM, in line with previous market expectations of an increase. This, to some extent, supports producer confidence. Moreover, with retail ferrochrome prices remaining high, ferrochrome producers overall maintain profitability and are enthusiastic about production. Against the backdrop of a supply gap caused by continued reductions in imported ferrochrome, southern regions are utilizing the advantages of the rainy season to operate at full capacity, while producers in north China's Inner Mongolia that had halted or reduced production are mostly preparing to resume operations. Domestic ferrochrome production is expected to increase. In addition, the September-October peak season continues to drive consumption, with downstream stainless steel planned production steadily increasing, providing solid support for ferrochrome demand. Under these dual tailwinds, domestic ferrochrome production is expected to continue rising and hit a new record high.

Stainless Steel

SMM data shows that national stainless steel production in September 2025 increased by 3.02% MoM and 5.79% YoY. By series, 200-series production rose 10.51% MoM, 300-series production increased 0.45% MoM, while 400-series production fell 0.84% MoM. Overall stainless steel production continued to climb in September, though the increase was slightly lower than early-month expectations and relatively modest. With the traditional September-October peak season officially underway, actual demand showed clear recovery compared to earlier periods, even though market traders generally held a pessimistic outlook. Mid-month, social inventory of stainless steel achieved destocking for 11 consecutive weeks, with inventory levels pulling back to early-year levels. Furthermore, the US Fed completed its first 20-basis-point interest rate cut within the month, providing some support to commodity prices and fostering relatively optimistic market sentiment in early to mid-September. Meanwhile, stainless steel mills maintained certain profit margins for most of the month, keeping production enthusiasm high. Although some mills faced production disruptions due to maintenance and environmental protection factors, overall output still trended upward.

Looking ahead to October, stainless steel production is expected to see a slight increase. The ongoing September-October peak season and low inventory levels have reduced sales and funding pressure on mills, helping maintain production near previous levels. Additionally, mills affected by maintenance and equipment upgrades have completed adjustments and resumed normal operations, which should contribute to a slight rise in overall output. However, downstream demand for stainless steel remains limited, failing to show the typical peak-season vigor. With short-term macro tailwinds largely priced in, SS futures trending downward, and wait-and-see sentiment intensifying, spot prices have declined, leading to renewed cost-profit inversion for stainless steel mills. This has somewhat dampened production enthusiasm, making a substantial increase in stainless steel output unlikely. Future attention should focus on the further recovery of downstream demand and the further release of macro tailwinds.

EMM

In September 2025, EMM production showed an upward trend MoM. On one hand, the downstream stainless steel market ended its previous decline and rebounded, while macro-level policies released positive signals. Under this dual effect, market confidence in stainless steel steadily recovered this month, and the scale of procurement and transactions expanded compared to the previous period. This trend, in turn, boosted EMM procurement demand, prompting manganese plants to increase their production schedules. On the other hand, some manganese plants that had previously halted production for maintenance resumed normal operations, which also provided a slight boost to market activity. Looking ahead to October 2025, as the traditional September-October peak season continues, although the recovery pace in end-use consumption has not yet met expectations, demand from the infrastructure and real estate sectors is gradually being released. Market demand is expected to remain on a recovery track. Considering various factors, EMM production in October is anticipated to achieve further MoM growth.

SiMn Alloy

In September 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production increased noticeably, rising both YoY and MoM. Regionally, most of the growth came from key northern production areas—Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Meanwhile, production in southern regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan also saw a slight increase MoM.

The MoM growth in SiMn alloy production in September was mainly due to two factors. First, production operations remained stable. Key northern production bases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia maintained high operating rates, and new capacity was successfully released in both regions in September, further pushing the operating rate slightly higher and directly driving production increases. Although overall operating rate in the south changed relatively little, Yunnan was still in the rainy season with preferential electricity prices, offering significant cost advantages. Local producers had little intention to cut production. Coupled with production scheduling based on orders and the commissioning of new capacity in provinces like Guangxi and Guizhou, these factors supported steady, slightly increasing production in the southern regions. On the other hand, traditional consumption expectations in the market were gradually released. In September, mainstream steel mill HBIS set its SiMn alloy procurement price at 6,000 yuan/mt. Although this price pulled back MoM, it still provided some support to the current SiMn market. Additionally, multiple positive factors emerged on both the macro front and the industry level during the month. The abundance of favorable macro factors in September also supported the upward trend in SiMn market prices, prompting SiMn alloy producers to expand their production scale accordingly.

Looking ahead to October 2025, SiMn alloy production is expected to show a slight downward trend. Cost side, support is likely to weaken. In October, the preferential power tariff in south China will end with the end of the rainy season, leading to a significant increase in power costs for local SiMn enterprises. Some factories in Yunnan have already indicated plans to adjust production schedules based on cost changes, showing willingness to implement production cuts. Demand side, the boost from the traditional peak consumption season may fall short of expectations. Reviewing August and September 2025, China's SiMn alloy production already achieved substantial growth for two consecutive months, gradually accumulating market supply pressure. Entering October, despite being part of the traditional September-October peak season, demand from steel mills had been partially front-loaded earlier, leaving relatively small room for further production increases, which will constrain SiMn alloy output to some extent.

Silicon Wafers

In September, silicon wafer enterprises significantly ramped up production, with output rising 5.37% MoM. After multiple rounds of price increases during the month, the gross profit for 183mm wafers turned positive from negative, while the other two sizes, though still not profitable, saw selling prices covering cash costs. Consequently, production enthusiasm among enterprises noticeably increased, leading to a substantial rise in silicon wafer output. Entering October, with Q4 quota restrictions and declining raw material and power costs during the rainy season, silicon wafer producers may moderately cut production, with October output expected to decrease.

Polysilicon

Actual polysilicon production in September saw a slight decline MoM from August, down approximately 1.26%. The main reason for the drop in September polysilicon output was significant production cuts by some manufacturers in Qinghai. In contrast, regions such as Xinjiang and Ningxia also saw an increase in operating rates and the commissioning of new capacity, which partially offset the production losses. Overall, the changes were relatively small. Polysilicon production in October is expected to increase beyond market expectations, primarily due to the resumption of capacity in Qinghai and the capacity ramp-up of new facilities in other regions. Meanwhile, some top-tier enterprises' production bases are also expected to implement production cuts.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market communication, domestic silicon metal production in September 2025 increased by 35,100 mt, up 9.1% MoM, but decreased by 33,300 mt, down 7.3% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production from January to September 2025 reached 3.0177 million mt, a decrease of 18.3% YoY.

Production in September continued to increase MoM, mainly driven by the Xinjiang production area, where output rose by approximately 34,000 mt MoM, while fluctuations in other production areas were relatively limited.

In October, the total planned production of silicon metal is expected to maintain an upward trend. On one hand, the capacity that resumed production in Xinjiang in September will be fully reflected in October's output, coupled with additional production start-up plans by leading silicon enterprises in October. On the other hand, as the transition period between the dry and rainy seasons approaches in Sichuan and Yunnan, most operating silicon enterprises plan to reduce or halt production by the end of October, resulting in a relatively limited impact on the monthly output reduction. Additionally, October has one more production day, and overall, silicon metal production is expected to reach the annual peak in October, with a projected MoM increase of 8.5%.

PV Module

In September, PV module manufacturers increased their output, but the actual production fell short of initial expectations. Overall production rose by approximately 1.05% compared to August. Recently, module demand has declined again; overseas demand has cooled as stockpiling has largely ended, while domestic distributed projects have decreased rapidly, and the growth of centralized projects has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in module manufacturers' orders on hand. Moreover, module costs continue to rise, increasing production pressure on enterprises and resulting in a further decrease in the October production schedule. Looking at the October module production schedule, the operating rate is expected to decline by 3.19% MoM compared to September.

Solar Cell

In September, the global production schedule of Chinese enterprises for solar cells reached approximately 61 GW, up 4.86% MoM, with domestic production scheduled at about 60 GW, up 4.78% MoM. The increase in production schedule was mainly driven by strong overseas market demand, particularly in India, where centralized procurement was front-loaded to cope with the ALMM policy window, sustaining high demand for 183N cells. Against this backdrop, solar cell enterprises generally maintained high operating willingness, especially integrated enterprises, which significantly increased production to strengthen supply chain control and ensure stable raw material supply. Meanwhile, the market's structural preference for large-size, high-efficiency cells continued to strengthen, further shifting the overall production structure toward high-efficiency models such as 210N.

Although, toward month-end, some enterprises planned to moderately reduce production schedules in October due to pressure from the module side, and the industry is expected to enter an adjustment phase of "controlling volume to maintain prices and optimizing structure," the full month saw mild production growth in the solar cell market, supported by overseas demand and cost-side factors, further consolidating the competitive advantage of high-efficiency capacity.

PV Film

In September, the total production schedule for the PV film industry rose 1.58% MoM. The main reason was the increase in module production schedules, which boosted the overall operating rate of film manufacturers. With module production schedules expected to decline in October, overall PV film production is projected to decrease slightly.

PV-Grade EVA

In September, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA increased 17% MoM. The primary reason was the rise in module production schedules, which led to higher operating rates at film manufacturers and enhanced purchase willingness among film enterprises. Some petrochemical companies received PV orders and scheduled production for PV-grade EVA. According to SMM, demand is expected to gradually slow down in October, and some petrochemical companies may switch to non-PV materials, leading to a projected slight decline in PV-grade production.

PV Glass

In September, domestic PV glass monthly production stopped declining and turned to growth, increasing 0.14% MoM from August. September saw a reduction of one day in domestic PV glass production days compared to August, but actual production increased. The main reason for the rise in production was that due to the increase in glass prices, some previously cold-sealed furnaces resumed production, leading to an increase in operating capacity. SMM statistics show that new operating capacity added during the month was nearly 2,000 mt/day. Additionally, high planned production on the demand side also provided support. In terms of October supply, with the increase in PV glass production days, coupled with plans for some new furnaces to start production and previously released capacity reaching full production, overall glass production is expected to rise again, with an estimated increase of 3.81% MoM from September.

DMC

In September, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 5.78% MoM but was up 4.63% YoY. The decline in September was mainly due to unexpected issues at monomer plants in Zhejiang, which prevented maintenance equipment from resuming production on schedule. Additionally, some monomer plants in North China and Shandong reduced their load due to various factors including periods, costs, inventory, and equipment, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply. For future operations, as maintenance equipment gradually resumes production in October, the operating rate is expected to see a small increase, leading to an estimated 9.1% MoM increase in silicone DMC production in October.

Magnesium ingot

According to SMM data, in September 2025, China's primary magnesium production increased by 8.33% MoM, with the operating rate adjusted to 66.03%.

In September, primary magnesium production rose by 8.33% MoM, driven by two factors: first, magnesium plants generally underwent maintenance in July and August due to high summer temperatures, resulting in much lower than average production; in September, most plants resumed operations, boosting output. Second, from the end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3, magnesium prices fluctuated at highs while raw material costs were low, significantly restoring market profits. Magnesium plants that had previously halted production due to losses gradually resumed operations, further driving production growth.​

By September, primary magnesium production from January to September 2025 matched or even exceeded the same period in 2024. In H1 2024, production increased due to the implementation of semi coke rectification policies, followed by a significant number of plants halting production in September due to a decline in magnesium prices, leading to losses. In H1 2025, affected by previous market conditions, production remained low and entered a long-term destocking phase. Low production and low inventory levels led to rising magnesium prices and restored confidence among magnesium producers, ultimately allowing the 2025 YTD production to catch up with the 2024 level.​

SMM expects China's primary magnesium production to continue growing in October 2025, with the increase mainly coming from production resumptions in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions. Overall, raw material costs for primary magnesium smelters remain high, increased supply is putting pressure on magnesium prices, smelter profit margins may compress again, some producers are voluntarily cutting production due to losses, collectively limiting the overall rise in production.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows China's magnesium alloy production in September 2025 increased by 7.76% MoM and 16.64% YoY, with cumulative production up 7.78% YoY; the September operating rate for magnesium alloy rose to 62.38%.

In September, magnesium alloy demand grew significantly. Most producers scheduled production based on orders, and spot supply was tight. Although some alloy producers actively increased production to boost magnesium ingot supply, restrictions in the smelting environment and summer high temperatures made it difficult for leading producers to recruit workers for production lines. Even facing delivery challenges due to tight spot supply, they could not raise operating rates. Overall, the magnesium alloy market saw both supply and demand increase in September. Alloy demand driven by end-use demand from electric two-wheelers and NEVs far exceeded supply growth, resulting in an undersupply situation, with processing fees trending upward.

In October, magnesium alloy production is expected to rise slightly. As high temperatures gradually subside, recruitment difficulties in production workshops are expected to ease, and operating rates at leading producers are likely to continue rising; meanwhile, the current increase in alloy processing fees has improved processing profit margins. Alloy production facilities of primary magnesium producers in Shaanxi are expected to release new capacity in October. Overall, subsequent alloy production is projected to show an upward trend.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in September 2025 decreased by 3.60% MoM, and the operating rate fell to 42.25%.

Magnesium powder production trended downward in September: some producers faced dual pressure from domestic and external demand—a persistently sluggish domestic consumer market, shrinking procurement demand from steel enterprises, coupled with renewed uncertainty in forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms due to the issuance of Announcement No. 17, leading to a decline in export orders. These enterprises proactively reduced capacity utilization rates. Although some companies performed well with orders and increased production, the earlier production gains were smaller than the reductions, ultimately dragging down overall September production. It is expected that as the policy on crackdown on forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms is gradually implemented, foreign trade orders for magnesium powder may increase, and magnesium powder production in October is expected to increase slightly.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in September 2025 increased by 2.41% MoM.

In the month, titanium dioxide market demand performed strongly, trading volume rose significantly, and enterprises achieved notable destocking results, with inventory down 14.03% MoM. Demand growth mainly came from the sulphuric acid process titanium dioxide market, driven by: first, the recovery in domestic coating market demand during the September peak season; second, a surge in overseas orders as European sulphuric acid process orders shifted to China in large volumes due to the closure of Venator's plant in Germany; third, an accident-induced production halt at a sulphuric acid process production line of a leading domestic enterprise, intensifying expectations of tight supply. Although some previously idled enterprises gradually resumed production in September, overall production remained stable. However, as inventories continued to be consumed, multiple enterprises issued second price adjustment letters since mid-month, and month-end quotations remained high. Looking ahead to October, the sustainability of market demand remains to be seen, and prices may face a possibility of correction from highs.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in September 2025 increased by 9.57% MoM.

The sponge titanium market overall continued its weak and stable trend in the month. The production rebound mainly stemmed from enterprises that had previously announced production cuts gradually resuming production in September. Demand in September showed structural divergence: high-end sponge titanium performed strongly supported by orders from aerospace, defense, and other sectors, while civilian-grade sponge titanium prices continued to decline, with the overall titanium materials market experiencing oversupply and prices diverging accordingly. From the perspective of domestic and overseas markets, domestic demand recovered somewhat in September, but overseas demand in Q3 weakened compared to H1, with the export market overall stable. It is expected that the sponge titanium market will continue its weak supply-demand balance in October, and prices may remain weak and stable.

Light Rare Earths

In September, Pr-Nd oxide production continued to grow MoM, with the main increments concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi. From the perspective of Pr-Nd oxide sources, the output of Pr-Nd oxide from raw ore separation enterprises decreased by nearly 3% MoM. However, the production from scrap recycling enterprises increased significantly in September, leading to an overall rise in total Pr-Nd oxide output for the month instead of a decline. It is understood that some separation plants will continue to halt production in October, hence industry participants expect Pr-Nd oxide production to decline to some extent in October.

In September, the production of Pr-Nd alloy remained relatively stable overall, with only a slight decrease of 0.27%. The main reasons were production cuts at some plants in Jiangxi due to lower-than-expected order schedules, while output increased in Inner Mongolia and Fujian due to capacity expansion and production schedule adjustments. Looking ahead to October, as orders for alloy enterprises stabilize, Pr-Nd alloy production is expected to operate steadily.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In September, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides continued its previous growth trend, maintaining a relatively high growth rate. However, judging from the production situation of separation plants, the total output of rare earth oxides from raw ore separation enterprises decreased slightly MoM, directly due to the successive shutdowns of some separation enterprises in September. Nevertheless, the scrap recycling sector showed strong vitality this month, with many scrap recycling enterprises significantly increasing their operating rates, injecting new supply into the market. Benefiting from the active performance of scrap recycling enterprises, the output of rare earth oxides from the recycling end achieved substantial growth. Overall, despite the reduced output from the raw ore separation segment, the strong supply from the recycling end resulted in the total supply of medium-heavy rare earth oxides not decreasing MoM, but instead showing an increase.

NdFeB

China's NdFeB magnetic material production remained flat MoM in September 2025. Price-wise: After September, Pr-Nd oxide prices fell significantly, with overall prices showing a stable-to-declining trend, which to some extent alleviated cost pressure for magnetic material enterprises. The partial relief of cost-side pressures has reduced the wait-and-see sentiment among magnetic material enterprises, leading to a more stable production pace. Demand side, white goods such as air conditioners have entered the off-season as summer ends, while the 3C electronics sector faces saturated demand due to a lack of new model stimulus, resulting in reduced orders for low-end magnetic materials. In the NEV sector, driven by the domestic program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, annual demand for rare-earth magnetic materials is expected to increase by around 25%. Expectations for wind power installation releases have strengthened, boosting the usage of permanent magnets. Additionally, sectors such as industrial robots and humanoid robots have seen a surge in demand for high-BH magnetic materials, partially offsetting the decline in traditional areas. In terms of industry concentration, consolidation became evident in August, with top-tier enterprises accounting for 70.45% of production. This trend continued in September, as the share of top-tier enterprises rose to 72.55%, up MoM. Benefiting from advantages in raw material reserves, export qualifications, and customer structure, top-tier enterprises maintained operating rates above 67%, while small and medium-sized enterprises continued to exit the market amid cost and policy barriers. The concentration of capacity toward top players has curbed sharp fluctuations in overall production, steering the industry toward a stable structure where the strong get stronger.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, domestic molybdenum concentrate production in September 2025 increased slightly MoM and was up 1.3% YoY. Total molybdenum concentrate output from January to September 2025 decreased by 2.6% YoY.

By province, domestic mine production in September saw some recovery influenced by production resumptions and output increases at certain mines. A mine in Inner Mongolia announced production resumption at the beginning of the month, releasing some output, while an expanded capacity at a mine in Jilin also stabilized into steady production, leading to increased output. In Henan, mines mainly maintained stable production, with one mine still undergoing technological transformation and no shipments within the month. Major producing regions such as Shaanxi and Liaoning maintained stable output.

Entering October, technological transformation at a mine in Henan has not yet been completed, and some domestic mines still have maintenance plans for October. Domestic molybdenum concentrate production in October is expected to see limited growth, with subsequent focus on mine operating rates and shipment conditions.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM data, domestic ferromolybdenum production in September 2025 decreased by 5.25% MoM and was down 0.9% YoY. Total ferromolybdenum production from January to September 2025 was up 9% YoY.

In September, domestic molybdenum concentrate prices fluctuated at highs, with the SMM 45% molybdenum concentrate monthly average price reaching 4,503 yuan/mtu, translating to an industry cost of approximately 288,000 yuan/mt for ferromolybdenum. The SMM ferromolybdenum monthly average price in September was 285,300 yuan/mt, resulting in an average loss of 2,700 yuan/mt for the industry. The significant cost pressure dampened production enthusiasm among enterprises. Additionally, a decline in molybdenum prices in mid-to-late September triggered a bearish sentiment, leading traders to offload stocks and intensifying downward pressure on prices. Smelters opted to reduce operating rates to minimize inventory buildup, with some small and medium-sized smelters in Liaoning and Hebei even lowering their operating rates below 40%.

Entering October, most domestic ferromolybdenum plants continued to fulfill previous orders. The total tender volume for ferromolybdenum in September had already reached around 14,000 mt, preemptively exhausting the expected order growth for October. With molybdenum concentrate prices continuing to fluctuate at highs and low raw material inventories, if molybdenum concentrate prices do not significantly retreat after the holiday, enterprises will still face the risk of losses. Some companies chose to halt production to avoid risks, making it difficult to expect an increase in production. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in molybdenum concentrate prices.

Ammonium paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, APT production in China in September 2025 remained stable MoM but decreased by about 12% YoY, continuing the trend of reduced output. In terms of industry operating rates, APT production in September did not deviate from the pattern of "production constrained by raw materials." Despite the increased inquiries from end-users driven by the September-October peak season, tight ore supply and high costs still dominated production decisions, with the overall operating rate maintained between 65% and 70%.

Some APT enterprises that initiated maintenance in August due to cost pressures did not fully resume full-capacity production in September: first, although APT product prices rose in tandem with raw material prices, the procurement cost of raw materials accounted for over 85%, and the rise in ore prices outpaced product prices, further compressing processing profits and reducing incentives for expansion; second, some previously shut-down enterprises in Jiangxi gradually resumed production in mid-to-late September, but the resumption pace was slow, with daily average production only recovering to 70% of pre-maintenance levels. Additionally, 2-3 small enterprises extended their maintenance into October due to financial pressures or raw material shortages, leading to weaker-than-expected production recovery. Entering October, the supply of domestic tungsten concentrate remains tight with no fundamental improvement. The domestic tungsten mining quota has yet to be announced, and the industry still harbors concerns over future raw material supply. APT enterprises continue to face difficulties in restocking raw materials and high cost pressures. Additionally, before the short National Day holiday, many hard alloy enterprises had already stockpiled, and the market has absorbed some of the backend orders. New orders in October are expected to decrease, making it difficult for APT enterprises to significantly increase production.

Silver

In September 2025, silver production declined by about 0.8% MoM from August. Lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Henan underwent autumn maintenance as scheduled, along with copper smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia, leading to a decline in precious metal production. In addition, smelter output in Hunan, Zhejiang, and Henan showed slight fluctuations and declines, with some manufacturers attributing the drop to tightening supplies of silver-bearing raw materials. In terms of production increases, a lead smelter in Henan saw a slight rise in output after the arrival of imported silver-lead ore, while smelters in Yunnan and Shandong resumed normal production levels following maintenance.

Entering October, on the reduction side, maintenance plans at lead-zinc smelters in Qinghai and a certain area in Jiangxi are expected to impact the production plans for precious and rare metals, although the exact maintenance period for precious metals is not yet determined. On the increase side, the resumption of production at copper and lead-zinc smelters that underwent maintenance in September, as well as a small capacity expansion project for a precious and rare metal recycling smelter in Hunan, are the main contributors. SMM expects refined silver production in October to increase by 3.1% MoM.

Silver nitrate

In September 2025, silver nitrate production decreased by 6.9% MoM, partly due to some enterprises reducing production ahead of the National Day holiday. Additionally, as silver prices continued to rise in mid-to-late September, the cost of raw material procurement for silver nitrate enterprises increased, leading some to cut production voluntarily to avoid purchasing raw materials at high prices and rejecting low-profit orders. Entering October, many silver nitrate enterprises have mentioned shutdowns ranging from 6 to 8 days, stating that orders originally scheduled for delivery during the holiday have been either advanced or postponed. With insufficient orders post-holiday to support an increase in production, SMM estimates that silver nitrate production will continue to decline by 100-150 mt in October due to fewer working days.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM's assessment, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) in September 2025 decreased by approximately 8.84% MoM overall. In detail, among the 33 surveyed entities assessed by SMM, 15 producers were shut down, an increase of 2 from the previous month; 17 producers saw reduced production, a decrease of 1 from the previous month; and 1 producer maintained essentially normal output, one fewer than the previous month. Regarding antimony ingot production, after rebounding to over 4,000 mt in August, output fell back below 4,000 mt in September. Many market participants view this as normal, given the ongoing relative tightness of raw materials, which leaves many producers unable to operate. Production around 4,000 mt remains far below normal levels. Due to price inversions, imported ore sources still cannot enter the domestic market in large quantities. Market participants expect China's antimony ingot production in October 2025 to likely not change significantly compared to September, with possibilities of either remaining stable or continuing a slight decline.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed national antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.). Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the survey covers a total of 33 antimony ingot producers, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in September 2025 increased significantly by approximately 11% MoM. After experiencing significant fluctuations for several consecutive months and two consecutive months of pullback in July and August, production saw a substantial rebound in September. This led many market participants to note that, following the summer off-season for demand, the traditional demand growth of the September-October peak season has arrived as expected. Although the increase is not massive, the improvement seen at the end of Q3 is still a positive development. In detail, among SMM's 13 surveyed entities in September, 2 producers were either shut down or in the debugging stage, 5 sodium pyroantimonate producers saw some production growth, and 1 producer experienced a decline in output. Consequently, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate increased overall in September. Market participants anticipate that the national sodium pyroantimonate output in October is unlikely to decline compared to September. As October begins, the market continues to emerge from the off-season, making it more likely that production will either remain flat or increase slightly.

Note: Starting from July 2023, SMM has been publishing the assessed national production of sodium pyroantimonate. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the survey includes a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across six provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a coverage rate of up to 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM assessments, China's refined bismuth production in September 2025 is estimated to decrease by approximately 14% MoM compared to August. In recent months, bismuth production has generally been on a downward trend. After the first rebound occurred in August, production fell significantly again in September. Market participants indicate that the substantial fluctuations in bismuth prices over the past month also reflect a stalemate in market fundamentals. Although the 14% drop in September production is not insignificant, it suggests that overall bismuth raw material supply remains tight, and production may likely stabilize at a low level. Detailed data shows that among the 24 surveyed entities, two producers saw a significant increase in output in September, while five experienced a notable decrease, with the remaining producers showing relatively small changes. Many market participants expect that the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide will remain difficult to alleviate in October. Production is likely to continue being constrained, making it more probable that refined bismuth output will either remain stable or decline slightly, with a significant drop being relatively unlikely.

Note: SMM has been publishing the assessed national refined bismuth production since October 2022. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, the survey includes a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across eight provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In September 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to hit new highs, increasing 2% MoM and 52% YoY. The main driver of the sustained production growth remained spodumene-derived lithium carbonate, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical plants in full swing. Meanwhile, driven by continued strong downstream demand, the overall industry supply capacity also improved.

By raw material, spodumene, salt lake, and scrap-derived lithium carbonate all saw some increases, while lepidolite-derived production continued to pull back.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: total production rose 5% MoM in September. On one hand, strong downstream demand prompted some flexible production lines to switch to lithium carbonate production, contributing to the increase. Other lithium chemical plants also raised output due to demand. On the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates, stimulated by futures hedging profits, further driving production growth.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: total production fell 15% MoM. Previously, a leading mine in Jiangxi province had suspended production due to mining permit issues, with related lithium chemical plants maintaining minimal output in August using ore inventory and spot orders. As ore inventory was gradually depleted, coupled with limited circulation of domestic lepidolite ore, output continued to decline. Other lepidolite-derived lithium chemical enterprises maintained relatively stable production.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: total production increased 10% MoM. Output saw a significant rise due to ramp-up of new production lines, while other enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: total production grew 7% MoM in September, mainly benefiting from strong lithium carbonate demand, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises, though overall output scale remained limited.

Currently, the lithium carbonate market still faces uncertainty regarding mining policies in Jiangxi province. From a pessimistic perspective, if related mines face shutdowns, limited short-term production could be maintained using inventory. Additionally, new production lines commenced operations in both the spodumene and salt lake sectors, coupled with downstream demand entering the traditional peak season, leading to sustained positive market expectations. Total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to maintain growth potential and may surpass the 90,000 mt milestone. SMM will continue to closely monitor the specific implementation of mining policies in the Jiangxi region.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM data, China's lithium hydroxide production surged 26% MoM in September, driven primarily by two factors: On the smelting side, producers resumed operations after previous maintenance, and some enterprises flexibly adjusted output based on increased orders, leading to a slight increase in production. Additionally, the price spread between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate turned negative, incentivizing some producers with flexible production lines to increase lithium hydroxide output, contributing partially to the overall growth. Together, these factors pushed smelting-side production up 19% MoM. On the causticisation side, production resumptions at salt lake enterprises and strong orders at certain companies jointly contributed to a significant output increase.

Looking ahead to October, a few new smelting production lines are expected to continue ramping up slightly, while causticisation-side production schedules remain relatively stable. Overall output is projected to be flat MoM but down 12% YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In September 2025, SMM's cobalt sulphate production increased 8.24% MoM and 17.6% YoY.

By raw material source, cobalt intermediate products accounted for approximately 59%, MHP for about 18%, and recycled materials for around 23%. Due to the extension of the DRC export ban, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise, leading to a gradual reduction in smelters' inventories of cobalt intermediate raw materials. Recycled materials and MHP continued to substitute for cobalt intermediate products. However, recent tightness in MHP and recycled raw materials, along with rising payables, has reduced enterprises' willingness to procure these materials for production, thus weakening the substitution effect.

Supply side, cobalt sulphate producers showed divergence: small and medium-sized enterprises faced tight raw material inventories and maintained low operating rates, while large integrated enterprises had relatively sufficient raw material inventories and saw seasonal improvement in downstream orders, leading to some production increase.

Demand side, orders for ternary and Co3O4 enterprises improved in September. Enterprises with relatively low raw material inventories continued purchasing in the market. Coupled with the new policy announced in the DRC on September 21, market concerns about future cobalt resource tightness grew, further strengthening downstream stocking sentiment.

In October, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to rise, with profits continuing to recover. Production at small and medium-sized enterprises will be maintained, while integrated cobalt sulphate enterprises with ternary and Co3O4 operations, due to sustained favorable orders, are expected to see a slight increase in production. The cobalt sulphate production schedule for October is projected to increase by 3.60% MoM.

Co3O4

In September 2025, Co3O4 production also increased significantly, up 9% MoM and 40% YoY. The main drivers for the production increase were higher production schedules from LCO cathode material manufacturers and increased procurement from downstream battery cell manufacturers, who were actively raising capacity utilization rates to meet consumer electronics peak season demand. Looking ahead to October, with further expansion in end-user stocking demand, Co3O4 production is expected to maintain its growth, with a projected MoM increase of about 2%. This trend indicates that the cobalt-based materials market maintains high vitality, supported by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In September 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production continued to show substantial growth, up 12.28% MoM and 22.05% YoY. By product series, the share of 6-series products further expanded to 45.66%. Driven by robust demand in the domestic EV market in recent months, the share of 6-series materials remained high. In contrast, the market shares of other precursor series were somewhat squeezed, with the 5-series accounting for 14.20%, the 8-series 26.91%, and the 9-series 10.71%. Currently, the domestic EV market remains in the traditional peak season, with some car models performing well in sales; additionally, as some policy subsidies are expected to phase out next year, demand in Q4 this year is still expected to remain at a relatively good level. On the consumer market side, recent demand has been generally stable, and October is expected to see some growth due to stockpiling for the "Double 11" shopping festival. Overall, market demand in October is projected to stay high, but affected by the recent sharp rise in raw material prices such as nickel and cobalt, precursor producers will place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness when taking orders. Meanwhile, raw material supply is currently tight, and in Q4, some small producers may see actual output fall short of demand due to insufficient raw materials. It is currently forecast that ternary cathode precursor production in October will increase slightly by 2.8% MoM and 16.2% YoY.

Ternary Cathode Material

In September 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production continued to show substantial growth, up 13.55% MoM and 23.44% YoY. By product series, the share of 6-series products further expanded to 45.15%. Driven by robust demand in the domestic EV market in recent months, the share of 6-series materials remained high. In contrast, the market shares of other precursor series were somewhat squeezed, with the 5-series accounting for 14.38%, the 8-series 27.39%, and the 9-series 10.59%. Currently, the domestic EV market remains in the traditional peak season, with some car models performing well in sales; additionally, as some policy subsidies are expected to phase out next year, demand in Q4 this year is still expected to remain at a relatively good level. Consumer market, recent demand remained generally stable, and demand in October is expected to see some growth due to stockpiling for the "Double 11" shopping festival. Overall, market demand in October is projected to stay high, but affected by the significant price increases of raw materials such as nickel and cobalt, ternary cathode precursor producers will place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness when taking orders. Meanwhile, raw material supply is currently tight, and some small producers may see actual output fall short of demand in Q4 due to material shortages. Currently, ternary cathode precursor production in October is forecast to increase slightly by 1.65% MoM and rise 16.2% YoY.

Iron phosphate

In September, China's iron phosphate production surged 17% MoM and was up 58% YoY. Supply in September showed a very noticeable increase compared to August, with monthly production exceeding 300,000 mt. Orders of top-tier integrated LFP enterprises surged, driving up demand for self-produced iron phosphate. At the same time, the lithium battery market entered its peak season in September, with downstream orders being passed along the chain, leading to a significant increase in orders and corresponding production schedules for iron phosphate producers. The market for externally purchased iron phosphate was quite active. This resulted in breakthroughs in both self-produced and externally sold iron phosphate in September. Meanwhile, some iron phosphate producers also restarted previously idle production lines to cope with the order growth. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP prices remained low in September, while ferrous sulphate prices continued to rise due to supply constraints, keeping iron phosphate producers under heavy pressure regarding iron sources. With changes in the supply-demand relationship in September, iron phosphate prices are expected to see a slight increase in October. Iron phosphate production in October is anticipated to grow 6% MoM and increase 58% YoY.

LFP

In September, China's LFP material production grew approximately 12.8% MoM and increased 42% YoY, with an industry operating rate of around 68%. Supply side, LFP producers showed high production activity during the month, overall downstream demand was robust, and output increased across material producers. There were ample orders for both NEV and ESS applications, with some top-tier enterprises operating at full capacity. Some enterprises continued to add new capacity, particularly as downstream battery cell manufacturers' demand for high compaction density materials kept increasing, prompting material producers to accelerate the expansion of new production lines. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers saw robust overall demand, especially leading cell makers, which experienced significant demand growth driven by the battery swapping network for pure electric heavy-duty trucks. Coupled with the boost from the traditional auto sales peak season, the "September-October peak season," demand from second- and third-tier battery cell manufacturers also improved. Additionally, the ESS sector performed excellently; according to the latest survey results, no ESS battery cell manufacturers have shown a tendency to reduce production, indicating high industry prosperity. Looking ahead to October, power battery cell demand is still expected to benefit overall from the continuous incremental demand brought by the "September-October peak season," while the ESS market will also maintain high levels. The industry as a whole is projected to sustain relatively high growth momentum, with an estimated growth rate of over 5%.

LCO

In September 2025, the LCO market showed steady growth, with production increasing slightly during the month, up 3% MoM and surging 55% YoY. This growth was primarily driven by sustained demand from the end-use consumer electronics sector and active stockpiling by downstream players in response to the traditional peak season. Given end-users' growing expectations of tighter raw material supply in 2026, LCO production in October is expected to continue its upward trend, with a projected MoM increase of around 2%. Currently, downstream battery enterprises are seeing robust orders, and the overall industry operating rate remains high, reflecting optimistic expectations for future demand across the industry chain.

LMO

In September 2025, LMO production showed a slight increase MoM. Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated relatively mildly during the month, easing the previous wait-and-see sentiment among LMO producers. Market offers were mostly adjusted dynamically following lithium carbonate price movements, and both product shipment pace and production progress remained stable. Market demand side, earlier significant price increases for LMO led power battery cell producers, concerned about further price rises, to engage in advance stockpiling. In addition, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the "September-October peak season," orders from battery cell manufacturers showed an upward trend, market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, LMO producers slightly raised their production schedules, thereby pushing up market supply in September.

Looking ahead to October 2025, activity in the LMO market is expected to further increase, with market inquiries likely to show steady growth. This trend will further stimulate producers' production enthusiasm. Driven by this factor, LMO supply in October 2025 is projected to achieve MoM growth, and the YoY growth rate is also expected to continue expanding.

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey involves professional analysts conducting monthly tracking of Chinese metal producers through phone interviews and field surveys, subsequently issuing China metal production reports.

The survey ensures baseline sample coverage while continuously expanding it, with samples reasonably selected and distributed considering factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature to ensure representativeness across all sub-items.

Results are officially released monthly via SMM's website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn) at month-end.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.