ADC12 Aluminum Alloy Prices Continue to Fluctuate in the Short Term; Post-Holiday Focus on Raw Material and Inventory Changes [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

October 9 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: Cast aluminum alloy futures were closed for the holiday.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on September 30, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price to the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2512) closing price at 10:15 was 620 yuan/mt.

Warrant Report: On September 30, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 33,162 mt, an increase of 4,381 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,303 mt, up 181 mt; Guangdong's total registered volume was 4,695 mt, up 1,306 mt; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 8,021 mt, up 426 mt; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 11,759 mt, up 2,468 mt; Chongqing's total registered volume was 4,384 mt, unchanged; Sichuan's total registered volume was 0 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum scrap side: On September 30, spot primary aluminum prices rose slightly from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 20,720 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices generally increased. Baled UBC was up 50 yuan/mt MoM, while shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminum scrap rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. Post-holiday, aluminum scrap prices are expected to hover at highs. On one hand, the tight supply fundamentals of aluminum scrap are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and support from downstream pre-holiday stocking demand continues to ferment. On the other hand, domestic tax cleanup policies have not yet seen further implementation feedback, but in the long term, downstream scrap utilization enterprises still have intentions to drive down prices. Overall, the mainstream price range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) is expected to fluctuate around 17,300-17,800 yuan/mt, while baled UBC prices will hover near 15,600-16,100 yuan/mt. The market should closely monitor the sustainability of downstream stocking demand before the holiday, the actual implementation pace of tax policies, and further guidance from primary aluminum price trends.

Silicon metal side: On September 30, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,300 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt. Individual silicon prices declined in Huangpu Port and north-west China. Prices held steady in Tianjin, Kunming, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Shanghai.

Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers were concentrated at $2,530-2,560/mt, while domestic spot prices were at 20,000-20,300 yuan/mt, with the immediate import loss widening to around 400 yuan/mt. The local ADC12 price quote in Thailand excluding tax stood at 81-82 baht/kg.

In terms of inventory: According to SMM statistics, on October 9, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 50,228 mt, a decrease of 235 mt compared to the last trading day before the holiday.

Summary: On September 30, the SMM ADC12 price was quoted at 20,900 yuan/mt. In the short term, aluminum scrap costs continue to support ADC12 prices, but extended downstream holidays and inventory buildup will limit upside room. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating rangebound trend. Going forward, key factors to monitor include raw material supply conditions, inventory changes, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]