[SMM Analysis] In September 2025, SMM Domestic Lithium Carbonate Total Production Continued to Hit a New High, Increasing Significantly by 52% YoY

In September 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to hit new highs, increasing 2% MoM and surging 52% YoY. The primary driver of sustained production growth remained spodumene-derived lithium carbonate, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical plants in full swing. Meanwhile, driven by continuously improving downstream demand, the overall supply capacity of the industry also increased accordingly.

By raw material: Spodumene, salt lake, and scrap-derived lithium carbonate all saw some growth, while lepidolite continued to pull back.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased 5% MoM. On one hand, strong downstream demand stimulated some flexible production lines to switch to lithium carbonate production, contributing to the increase. Some other lithium chemical plants also saw production improvements driven by demand. On the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates due to incentives from futures hedging profits, further driving production growth.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 15% MoM. Previously, a leading mine in Jiangxi province had suspended production due to mining permit issues, and its related lithium chemical plant maintained minimal output in August using ore inventory and spot orders. As ore inventories were gradually depleted, coupled with limited circulation of domestic lepidolite ore, output continued to decline. Production at other lepidolite-derived lithium chemical enterprises remained relatively stable.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 10% MoM. With new production lines ramping up, output of salt lake-derived lithium carbonate saw significant growth, while other enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased 7% MoM, mainly benefiting from the continuously favorable lithium carbonate demand market, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises. However, the overall production scale remained limited.

Currently, the lithium carbonate market still faces uncertainty regarding mining policies in Jiangxi province. From a pessimistic perspective, if related mines face suspension, limited short-term production could be maintained using inventories. Additionally, with new production lines coming online for both spodumene and salt lake-derived lithium carbonate, total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to maintain growth potential, potentially exceeding the 90,000 mt mark. SMM will continue to closely monitor the specific implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi province. Demand side, the EV market saw rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEVs; the ESS market experienced robust supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. Production schedules for battery cells and cathode materials continued to improve in October, and lithium carbonate is expected to undergo significant destocking during the month.