In September, China's aluminum casting ingot production fell below 900,000 mt, and the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to further increase in October

SMM September 30:
According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in September 2025 (30 days) increased 1.14% YoY but decreased 3.18% MoM. Entering the traditional peak season in September, the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded slightly, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum rising 1.2 percentage points MoM to 76.3%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum ingot casting volume in September decreased 8.67% YoY and fell 7.94% MoM to around 857,000 mt.

Capacity changes: By the end of September, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.84 million mt (SMM made revisions after excluding some double-counted capacity, considering capacity replacement and old plant demolitions), and operating aluminum capacity was about 44.06 million mt. Domestic operating aluminum capacity saw a slight increase MoM in September, and the industry operating rate also edged up MoM, mainly due to: the gradual start-up and commissioning of the second-phase replacement project for aluminum electrolysis in Shandong and Yunnan; and the resumption of production at previous technological transformation projects in Guangxi.

Production forecast: Entering October 2025, the commissioning of replacement projects and production resumptions from technological transformation projects are expected to bring further growth in aluminum ingot production, with daily average aluminum ingot production achieving an increase. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, some northern enterprises currently report increased plans for direct sales of liquid aluminum next month, while individual southern enterprises indicate reduced plans for downstream aluminum billet enterprises to receive liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rebound 1 percentage point to 77.3%. Subsequent attention should be paid to the actual demand situation during the peak season, as well as the shutdown of old capacity and the commissioning plans for new capacity under replacement projects.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's proprietary database models for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]