[SMM Analysis: National Day Special Review: The Past and Present of China's Aluminum Capacity Ceiling] Since its inception in 1953, China's aluminum industry has undergone a development journey from scratch and from small to large, ultimately becoming the world's largest aluminum producer. Throughout this process, the formation and evolution of the capacity ceiling reflect the complex interplay between China's industrialization progress, industrial policy adjustments, and sustainable development. The development of China's aluminum industry can be divided into four stages...

Please be informed that our English website will suspend news updates during the upcoming National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival from October 1 to October 8, 2025.

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate Steadily Rose in September, Aluminum Alloy Wheel Hub Exports Hit a New High, Boosting Industry Confidence] SMM September 30, 2025: In September 2025, the operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy industry showed a steady upward trend, while aluminum alloy wheel hub exports reached a new record high, injecting strong momentum into the industry's development. In terms of the operating rate performance, the preliminary operating rate for China's primary aluminum alloy industry in September was 57.7%, up 0.9% MoM and up 2.4% YoY...

The 2025 National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching. To help users make arrangements in advance, SMM’s work schedule during the dual festival holiday is announced as follows:  

The logic for a rise in aluminum fluoride prices in October has already emerged, but its final realization depends on the tender pricing of downstream aluminum enterprises. From the cost side, the sharp rise in fluorite prices has become the core support. Although prices of raw materials such as aluminum hydroxide and sulfuric acid continue to weaken, the increase in fluorite prices has offset the cost reductions of other raw materials, leading to an overall upward trend in aluminum fluoride production costs. Under cost pressure, corporate profit margins are continuously being squeezed, with some enterprises already experiencing losses, providing underlying momentum for price increases. From the supply and demand perspective, the current market is in a state of "weak balance," with no significant fluctuations on either the supply or demand side, and no key variables to alter the existing supply-demand equilibrium. In terms of market expectations, companies' willingness to push for price increases has significantly strengthened. Under high cost pressure and continued support from fluorite prices, the market has reached a consensus on aluminum fluoride price hikes in October. SMM expects prices may exceed 10,000 yuan/mt, though the actual realization of prices still awaits clear guidance from the tender prices of leading downstream aluminum enterprises in October.

According to the SMM survey, as of September 2025, the total sample capacity of domestic aluminum rod reached 8.388 million mt, a net increase of 768,000 mt from the beginning of the year, showing a rapid expansion trend. The newly added capacity was mainly distributed across six provinces: Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Shandong, and Sichuan. Meanwhile, the newly commissioned capacity in H2 reached 338,000 mt (including projects under construction), with the overall growth rate significantly faster than the same period last year. The accelerated capacity growth in the aluminum rod industry is currently driven by three main factors:

[SMM Aluminum Downstream Analysis: Resilience Amid Divergence - A Comprehensive Analysis of Production and Stockpiling in the Aluminum Processing Industry During the 2025 National Day Holiday] The 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays combined to form an 8-day long holiday. Through a survey of sample enterprises across the entire industry chain in the aluminum processing industry, SMM found that the industry exhibits both overall production resilience and sectoral divergence. This survey covered a total of 87 downstream aluminum processing enterprises, involving a total annual capacity of over 13.226 million mt. The data shows...