China's refined bismuth output in September is estimated to decrease by around 14% month-on-month.
According to SMM assessment, China's refined bismuth output in September 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 14% compared to the national output in August. In recent months, bismuth production has generally been on a downward trend. After the first rebound in August, output saw another significant decline in September. Market participants indicate that the substantial fluctuations in bismuth prices over the past month reflect a stalemate in market fundamentals.Detailed data shows that among SMM's surveyed entities, two manufacturers saw a notable increase in output in September, while five experienced significant declines, with the rest showing little change. Many market observers anticipate that the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide will remain difficult to alleviate in October. Production is likely to continue facing constraints, with refined bismuth output expected to stabilize or decline slightly. The possibility of another significant drop remains low.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.