Cost side: Raw materials fluctuate at highs, cost pressure significant

Manganese ore: Transportation delays in major overseas production areas due to extreme weather tightened the supply of circulating material in the domestic market, traders generally maintained reluctance to budge on prices, and quotations remained firm. Sulphuric acid, a key auxiliary material, entered its peak demand season, with prices continuing to climb; current industrial-grade sulphuric acid quotations in east China rose 8% MoM from August, becoming another significant source of pressure on the cost side. Comprehensive calculations show the current production cost for battery-grade manganese sulphate increased by approximately 200 yuan/mt MoM from August, with the cost pass-through effect being significant.

Demand side: Peak season drives momentum, diversified demand provides support

With the arrival of the traditional September-October peak season, market trading activity recovered significantly. Downstream cathode plants' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and ternary cathode precursor enterprises, based on expectations of demand growth, intensified their stockpiling efforts, leading to a substantial rise in the volume of long-term contract executions for manganese sulphate. According to industry feedback, orders at mainstream manganese salt plants in September grew 10%-15% MoM, with some enterprises indicating clear demand increments had already emerged this month. Inventory side: The industry continued its cautious strategy of producing based on sales; to avoid inventory risks, manganese salt plants strictly arranged production according to order volumes, spot order procurement remained low, and no inventory hoarding was observed in the market. By late September, inventory levels in major production areas fell around 5% MoM, and supply and demand maintained a tight balance.

Supply side: Capacity release, supply-demand tight balance

Domestic environmental protection checks intensified, concentrating the supply of circulating material in the market; on the other hand, manganese salt plants' production enthusiasm improved significantly in September, operating rates surged substantially, and supply showed phased growth, effectively alleviating some supply pressure.

Regionally, the core production area of Guangxi, leveraging resource and industry chain advantages, maintained its capacity utilization rate above 65%, while areas like Guizhou, constrained by costs, saw limited capacity release, further consolidating the tight balance on the supply side.

Short-term perspective: The peak season effect of the September-October peak season is expected to continue releasing, downstream stocking demand and cost support are forming a resonance, and manganese sulphate prices are expected to continue their relatively strong trend in October, with the lower end price of battery-grade products anticipated to break through 6,100 yuan/mt.