Demand Side: Dual Downstream Boost Drives Strong Growth Momentum

LMO Sector: Driven by the expansion of electric two-wheeler and low-end digital demand, China's domestic LMO production in 2025 is projected to increase by over 5% YoY. As competition in the LMO industry intensifies, enterprises are increasingly opting for more cost-effective Mn3O4 to replace traditional manganese sources to optimize their cost structures, boosting consumption per metric ton of LMO by 8%-10%.

LMFP Sector: As a key direction for next-generation power battery cathode materials, the commercialization of LMFP is accelerating. Top-tier enterprises such as CATL and BYD have initiated large-scale trial production. Given its advantages of low impurity content and stable electrochemical performance, Mn3O4 has become the mainstream manganese source choice for LMFP production. Its demand share in this sector is expected to exceed 25% by 2026.

Supply Side: Leading Enterprises Drive Capacity Expansion and Process Iteration Accelerates

The supply side exhibits significant characteristics of "top-tier concentration and process upgrading." Capacity expansion is primarily led by the leading enterprise Sinosteel NMC. Regionally, manganese-rich areas such as Hunan and Hubei, leveraging advantages in raw materials and the industry chain, contribute over 70% of the nation's battery-grade capacity.

Intensifying competition among process routes is driving industry upgrades. The manganese flake method dominates the high-end market due to its high product purity and uniform particle size distribution, particularly favored by LMFP enterprises. Meanwhile, manganese sulphate method enterprises face dual pressures from cost and quality, prompting some small and medium-sized enterprises to begin technological upgrades to enhance their product competitiveness.

Cost Side: Raw Material Prices Stabilize, Providing Solid Cost Support

The production cost of battery-grade Mn3O4 is primarily influenced by manganese raw material prices, accounting for over 60%. In September, EMM market prices remained stable. Regarding manganese ore, although domestic ore prices experienced fluctuations, top-tier enterprises effectively hedged against raw material volatility risks through integrated layouts or long-term agreement purchases, resulting in significantly better cost stability compared to small and medium-sized enterprises.

Short-term, the seasonal effect of the September-October peak season will continue to release demand. Combined trial production orders for LMFP and stockpiling demand for LMO are expected to keep the price of battery-grade Mn3O4 stable with a slight upward trend in October. The mainstream quotation range is anticipated to rise towards 13,000 yuan/mt.