This year, the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays followed closely one after another, with statutory holidays lasting eight days. SMM has compiled the following information on pre-holiday stockpiling and worker holiday arrangements at secondary copper rod enterprises (enterprise capacity: 2.19 million mt):
1. Enterprises outside Anhui and Jiangxi maintained operations during the holiday, with workers mainly on shift schedules.
According to the survey, some areas in Jiangxi and Anhui have remained shut down and are waiting for further developments due to the impact of Notice No. 770 since early September. However, secondary copper rod enterprises in other regions generally indicated that they would maintain operations during the holiday. If raw material stockpiling is insufficient, workers may be given one to two days off. Nevertheless, following the surge in copper prices, the supply of secondary copper raw materials in the market has become relatively ample, and secondary copper rod enterprises are not concerned about insufficient raw material procurement.
2. Pre-holiday stockpiling: Finished product inventories are low, and traders and end-users are actively picking up goods.
Secondary copper rod enterprises reported that after the rapid rise in copper prices, both traders and end-users have been urging them to deliver goods as soon as possible. Essentially, secondary copper rod produced daily is dispatched immediately, leaving enterprises with almost no finished product inventories. As a result, secondary copper rod enterprises are actively stockpiling secondary copper raw materials before the holiday. They indicated that due to the long holiday period, they need to prepare 600–750 mt of secondary copper raw materials in advance to ensure continuous operation during the holiday.
3. Market sentiment: End-users are bullish on future copper prices.
This round of copper price increases was primarily driven by accidents of varying degrees at two mines under Freeport-McMoRan, raising global expectations of tighter copper ore supply. End-users generally believe that copper prices are expected to reach 85,000 yuan/mt, leading to more optimistic purchasing sentiment compared to the same period in previous years. They anticipate that copper prices will maintain an upward trend after the holiday.
4. Post-holiday outlook: Policy instability and intensifying raw material supply shortages may fuel further copper price increases.
The current copper price surge is attributed to expected declines in overseas copper ore supply, coupled with an anticipated reduction in domestic supply of scrap-produced anode plates. Jiangxi, as a major region for scrap-produced anode plates, has seen many enterprises suspend production due to the delayed implementation of Notice No. 770. Smelters are concerned about failing to meet delivery targets for scrap-produced anode plates in October and have been forced to reduce processing fees to 200 yuan/mt. However, amid policy uncertainties, insufficient raw material supply is expected to further drive up copper prices, widening the price spread between refined and scrap copper rods. This will continuously stimulate downstream end-use consumption and boost the operating rate of secondary copper rod production.
