Last week coincided with the extended domestic Double Festival holiday. During the holiday, except for coke's first-round price increase being implemented on October 1, spot markets for most other ferrous metals series remained stable, with most markets closed for the holiday. Amid sluggish market demand, post-holiday inventories of the five major steel products accumulated significantly on a weekly basis, with the accumulation rate far exceeding that of the same period last year. On the first working day after the holiday, although futures rebounded, end-user restocking demand fell short of expectations under high inventory pressure. On the macro front, the EU formally announced the strictest-ever steel import ban on October 7, reducing the duty-free import quota to 18.3 million mt per year, down 47% from 2024, raising the tariff on excess portions from 25% to 50%, and adding new origin traceability requirements. The US also announced that starting November 1, it will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Supply Disruptions Dominate Tin Market, SHFE Tin Fluctuating at Highs Highlights Supply-Demand Imbalance] As of the midday close on October 10, 2025, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to fluctuate at highs, with active intraday trading. It once touched 290,000 yuan/mt during the session, rising slightly compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, and overall traded within the range of 284,000 to 290,000 yuan/mt. The recent strength in SHFE tin is mainly supported by expectations of overseas supply tightening, particularly as the Indonesian government's stringent crackdown on illegal mining has intensified market concerns over a global tin ore supply deficit.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Breaks Through 280,000 Mark, Tight Supply-Demand Balance Supports Prices Fluctuating at Highs] On the midday of October 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract performed strongly, closing the morning session at 286,470 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of over 2%. The contract opened today at 280,200 yuan/mt, significantly higher than the previous session's closing price, and once climbed to a high of 286,530 yuan/mt during the session, showing active momentum from bulls. On the external market, although the overnight LME three-month tin contract closed down 0.33% at $36,250/mt, LME tin overall showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise during the National Day holiday, with inventory levels remaining at historically relatively low levels, providing support for prices.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Indonesia's Crackdown on Illegal Mining Sparks Supply Concerns, SHFE Tin Closes Strongly Higher at Midday] On September 30, 2025, at midday, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2511) settled at 275,130 yuan/mt, up 0.96%. It once surged to 283,000 yuan/mt during the session, hitting a new high since April 3, before paring some gains and hovering at highs overall. Overnight, LME tin performed strongly, closing at $35,455/mt, up 2.79%, leading the gains in the base metal market. However, during the Asian session today, LME tin pulled back to $35,040/mt, reflecting a subtle shift in market sentiment ahead of the holiday.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Market in the Doldrums in the Morning Session, Downstream Stockpiling Nears Completion Ahead of the National Day Holiday] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin 2511 contract moved downwards after a higher opening. It opened at 274,070 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan from the previous day, but futures soon came under pressure and pulled back. By the midday close, it settled at 271,950 yuan/mt, down 1,600 yuan or 0.58%. Trading activity remained sluggish, with some funds opting to take profits ahead of the holiday. Combined with rising risk aversion on the macro front, tin prices remained in the doldrums. On the LME side, tin closed up 0.07% at $34,415 overnight, but LME tin inventory increased by 35 mt from the previous day to 2,775 mt. With low inventory providing support and inventory buildup exerting pressure, LME tin is likely to continue fluctuating in the short term.

According to the survey, some areas in Jiangxi and Anhui have remained shut down and are waiting for further developments due to the impact of Notice No. 770 since early September. However, secondary copper rod enterprises in other regions generally indicated that they would maintain operations during the holiday. If raw material stockpiling is insufficient, workers may be given one to two days off.

On January 20, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) and the Standardization Administration of China (SAC) released GB/T 45203-2024 "Recycled Black Mass for Lithium-Ion Batteries". This specification details multiple requirements and regulations for recycled black mass used in lithium-ion batteries, including specific chemical composition, inspection and acceptance standards, sampling and sample preparation, packaging, and transportation. The key highlights compared to the pre-draft released in June 2024 are as follows: This version classifies the recycled black mass into two types and two grades based on the content of nickel, cobalt, lithium, and impurities. It adds requirements for water-soluble fluoride and specifies the content limits for chemical components like iron, phosphorus, and manganese. Overall, the new specification provides more detailed and specific guidance and standards for the comprehensive utilization industry of spent power batteries from new energy vehicles, contributing to the healthy development of the industry.

This week, prices for salt products such as sulfuric cobalt and sulfuric nickel continued to rise. Consequently, the nickel and cobalt coefficients for black mass like ternary and lithium cobalt oxide remained largely flat this week, and the lithium coefficient also stayed basically unchanged. The lithium point price for LFP black mass remained stable this week. Taking LFP electrode scrap black mass as an example, the current price is 26,500-28,000 RMB per lithium point. For ternary black mass, for instance, the current nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary electrode scrap black mass is 73.5-75.5%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared to last week, while the lithium coefficient is 69-72%, also up about 1% from last week.

I. Price Review Lithium Battery Recycling: January-February: Pre-holiday stockpiling led to oscillating prices. In January, the price of spent lithium batteries overall moved within a range. As battery scrap prices remained firm, production costs for hydrometallurgical plants continued to be inverted, leading to no large-scale pre-holiday stockpiling demand; procurement was mostly for order-based, rigid demand. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, with breaks expected to last until around the Lantern Festival for some small and medium-sized crushing plants and traders, the circulation volume of scrap in the market decreased, resulting in thin trading. Prices for salts like sulfuric nickel and sulfuric cobalt remained basically stable in terms of demand, while lithium carbonate prices experienced a slight decline. As lithium salt prices fell while the price of black mass required for production remained temporarily stable, the cost inversion for some LFP recycling enterprises worsened, leading them to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. On Monday, five departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)", setting an average annual growth target for the steel industry's value-added at around 4% over the next two years, which was positive for market sentiment. However, demand for finished products was not well released, making it difficult for futures to rise. In the latter part of the week, six departments announced a strict ban on new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, requiring that new or renovation projects must formulate capacity replacement plans. Expectations of anti-involution resurfaced, coupled with MoM improvement in finished product inventory data, leading to a retreat of bear funds and a slight rise in futures. However, by the weekend, both the US and the EU announced they are expected to impose new tariffs on China, causing futures to decline again. On the spot market side, suppressed by futures, pre-holiday procurement demand this week was not significant...