According to the survey, some areas in Jiangxi and Anhui have remained shut down and are waiting for further developments due to the impact of Notice No. 770 since early September. However, secondary copper rod enterprises in other regions generally indicated that they would maintain operations during the holiday. If raw material stockpiling is insufficient, workers may be given one to two days off.

[SMM Analysis:Grasberg Production Incident Heightens Expectations of Disruptions on Copper Supply Side] According to a report by Freeport-McMoRan, since the slurry accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8, two people have died and five are missing. The incident directly led to the suspension of operations at the world’s second-largest copper mine. Freeport-McMoRan estimates that its 2026 production could be 35% lower than previously projected. Based on SMM's assessment, Grasberg’s copper production is expected to be 488,000 metric tons in 2025 (previously estimated at 750,000 metric tons) and 500,000 metric tons in 2026 (previously estimated at 730,000 metric tons). This incident not only affects copper concentrate supply but also impacts copper smelting demand, represented by facilities such as Indonesia’s Gresik and Manyar, resulting in a reduction in both supply and demand. SMM predicts the supply-demand balance for 2025 will be -268,000 metric tons and -308,000 metric tons for 2026.

During the 2025 National Day holiday, the average days off for copper processing enterprises (same sample as last year) increased by 3.77 days YoY, with particularly notable extensions for copper pipe & tube, wire and cable, and copper billet producers. Affected by the sharp pre-holiday rise in copper prices, downstream stocking willingness was generally suppressed, and enterprises mainly conducted just-in-time procurement, keeping overall inventory at relatively low levels. Although some companies still anticipate a recovery in October demand, constrained by multiple factors including high copper prices and slow end-use demand recovery, the industry generally holds a “cautiously optimistic” view of the post-holiday market, with overall operating rates expected to be difficult to exceed the same period last year. 

The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival coincide, resulting in an 8-day holiday; in previous years, the September-October peak season marked the start of a new cold year, with copper pipe & tube market orders and operating rates being quite impressive. However, this October may be the most sluggish for copper pipe & tube production in recent years.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, with only two trading days remaining, as the holiday period is relatively long, some suppliers are expected to continue offloading goods at low prices early in the week. However, some smelter supplies have already been reserved, and the quoted price center is expected to rise.