[SMM Analysis] Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise this week due to supply-side disruptions.

Published: Sep 26, 2025 16:34

Source: SMM

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Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened at 122,790 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week, then pulled back, closing at 121,380 yuan/mt on the 26th, down 0.12% WoW. LME nickel prices also dropped slightly this week, with the latest quote at $15,210/mt, down 0.43%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 122,720 yuan/mt this week, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 2,350 yuan/mt this week, flat WoW, while the premium for mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained in the range of -100-200 yuan/mt, relatively stable. Trading-wise, spot transactions of refined nickel improved this week, mainly due to pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream users, leading to an increase in trading volume.

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During the week, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed administrative sanctions on 190 mining companies that failed to pay reclamation guarantees, involving about 30 nickel miners. Combined with disruptions from a copper mine incident in Indonesia, these factors stirred market concerns about the stability of mine supply, leading to a rebound in nickel prices. Data released this week showed the US final Q2 GDP annualized quarter rate was significantly revised up to 3.8%, a two-year high. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 218,000. The strong data boosted the US dollar, putting downward pressure on base metals like nickel. During a meeting with US friendship groups in New York, Premier Li Qiang stated that the industrial structures of China and the US are highly complementary, and strengthening economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial, bringing positive expectations for the global trade environment and, to some extent, easing market pessimism. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract referenced in the range of 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.

Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 3,700 mt this week, flat WoW.

Domestic social inventory was about 40,800 mt, with a destocking of 656 mt WoW.

Nickel market Nickel

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