Gresberg Production Cuts Push Copper Prices to New Yearly Highs, Peak Season Consumption Expectations Weaken Significantly [SMM Macro Weekly Review]

This week's core impact stemmed from the nearly two-week full shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia following a mudslide accident on September 8. Freeport estimated that copper sales volumes in Q4 2025 would nearly stagnate, and 2026 production could be approximately 35% lower than previous forecasts, sparking market concerns about a significant contraction in global copper ore supply. Copper prices surged over 3% during the night session, hitting a new yearly high. On the macro front, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasized opposition to "involutionary" competition in smelting, deepening supply worries. However, the US Q2 GDP was significantly revised up to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims also came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of US economic resilience. The US dollar index rose sharply, putting a cap on the rise in copper prices. Overall, supply-side disruptions and macro policy dynamics are intertwined, leading to significantly increased short-term copper price volatility, with both high-level risks and support present. This week, LME copper broke to a new high, touching the $10,500/mt level mid-week, while SHFE copper also rose to a yearly high, generally fluctuating around 83,000 yuan/mt.

On the fundamentals side, spot trading for copper concentrates was inactive this week, with the spot TC holding around negative $40/mt. Arrivals of imported copper were flat compared to last week, and trading among traders was also sluggish. Downstream consumption was noticeably weak due to the surge in copper prices, resulting in a very subdued pre-holiday stockpiling atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of processing enterprises was poor, and spot premiums declined steadily.

Looking ahead to next week, with only two trading days, macro front information is expected to be relatively quiet. Market trading will likely remain focused on mine production disruptions and macro policies. LME copper is forecast to fluctuate between $10,200/mt and $10,400/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to move between 81,500 yuan/mt and 83,000 yuan/mt. On the spot side, the sluggish atmosphere is expected to persist next week, with weak pre-holiday demand. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2510 contract are anticipated to range from a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt.