With the Mid-Autumn Festival coinciding with National Day, the statutory holiday period spans eight days. SMM conducted a survey on the production schedules and current stockpiling situation of Chinese brass billet enterprises during the holiday. The details are as follows:
Enterprise Production Arrangements: Holiday Duration Up YoY
The survey covered 12 brass billet producers with a total annual capacity of 1.35 million mt. Results show that non-production staff at these enterprises generally observed the statutory eight-day holiday, while production workers typically had holidays of 3-5 days. Compared to last year, the average holiday duration for brass billet enterprises increased by 1.15 days.
Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Situation: Muted September-October Peak Season
Traditionally, September and October represent the peak demand season for the copper billet market, with active downstream stocking sentiment typically seen before the National Day holiday. However, the expected "September-October peak season" strength failed to materialize this year, as relatively weak order performance led to insignificant pre-holiday stockpiling.
Market Faces Multiple Challenges:Recent intensified customs checks on certificates of origin have led to tight spot supply of secondary brass. Meanwhile, copper prices have risen rapidly, influenced by factors including supply disruptions at the mine level, with the most-traded SHFE copper contract price surpassing the 83,000 yuan/mt mark, significantly dampening stockpiling enthusiasm among downstream enterprises.
Market Sentiment: Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment
Most copper billet enterprises reported that while downstream customers do have order release requirements, the prevailing high copper prices have led to a widespread adoption of a wait-and-see attitude, with customers awaiting suitable ordering opportunities. Overall, affected by high copper prices, downstream stockpiling volume for copper billets this year is significantly lower than the level seen during the same period in 2024.
Post-Holiday Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Variables
Regarding the post-holiday market trend, some copper billet enterprises anticipate a possible pullback in copper prices, which could lead to orders being gradually placed by customers who adopted a wait-and-see stance due to high pre-holiday prices. However, copper prices fluctuating at highs will continue to play a decisive role in post-holiday consumption.
As a traditional peak consumption season, the market generally expects copper billet orders in October to recover compared to September, showing a growth trend MoM. However, compared to the same period last year, market demand is anticipated to cool, reflecting an overall adjustment in this year's copper billet consumer market. The following are excerpts from the survey records:
