[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Nears End, Aluminum Prices Continue to Encounter Resistance] Futures side, during the night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,790 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 20,840 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,750 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,800 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt or 0.10% from the previous close. Trading volume was 48,000 lots, and open interest was 219,000 lots. On the LME, aluminum opened at $2,660.5/mt, reached a high of $2,668/mt, a low of $2,658/mt, and closed at $2,663/mt. On the macro front, divisions within the US Fed over the future path of monetary policy have widened. Fed Governor Bowman stated that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation; this year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, believes the more the balance sheet is reduced, the better; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed some unease about implementing too many interest rate cuts prematurely based on slowing employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also argued against fully shifting to a neutral stance, citing excessive risks. (Neutral★)

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: This Week, Leading Secondary Aluminum Producers Saw a Slight Rebound in Operating Rates; Next Week's Extended Holiday to Cause a Phased Pullback] Although pre-holiday stocking demand drove a recovery in transactions for manufacturers and traders, the overall increase was limited. Overall, cost support from aluminum scrap and pre-holiday stocking demand provided a floor for ADC12 prices. However, extended downstream holidays, limited restocking increments, and continuous inventory buildup constrained upside potential. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound before the holiday, with close attention needed on raw material availability, holiday inventory accumulation, and post-holiday demand recovery.

[SMM Analysis]Typhoon Temporarily Disrupted Guangdong Secondary Aluminum Market Mid-Week, Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Warrant Exceeded 19,000 mt

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Boosts Spot Premiums/Discounts, Inventory Buildup During Double Holiday Expected to Exert Top Pressure on Aluminum Prices and Premiums/Discounts]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Typhoon "Hagibis" Briefly Disrupts Circulation in Guangdong's Secondary Aluminum Market] Overall, rigid costs coupled with stockpiling demand are supporting prices, but sluggish demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Close attention should be paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term, Supported by Costs and Stockpiling] Currently, aluminum scrap prices remain relatively firm, providing some cost support for ADC12. Demand side, downstream demand has shown a mild recovery since September, but the peak season performance has fallen short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually arranged shutdown plans, while pre-holiday stocking demand offers short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs combined with stockpiling demand underpin prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory pressure continue to pose constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Allert Warrant Registrations Reach 3,878 mt on First Day, August Imports Still Linger at 70,000 mt Low] Yesterday, aluminum prices edged down, while secondary aluminum market quotes varied, with some falling by 100 yuan/mt and others holding steady. Since September, downstream demand has seen mild recovery, but peak season performance has fallen short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually arranged shutdown plans, with pre-holiday stocking demand providing short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs coupled with stockpiling demand are supporting prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, with close attention needed on raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

SMM, September 22 - According to customs data, China's aluminum profile exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) reached 84,300 tons in Augus 2025, up 0.17% MoM but down 14.94% YoY.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Warrant Business Officially Launched on September 22] Last Friday, the SMM ADC12 price held steady at 20,950 yuan/mt. Recently, aluminum prices have retreated, and aluminum scrap traders' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a marginal improvement in market circulation. Raw material procurement pressure for secondary aluminum plants has slightly eased, but the overall tight supply situation remains unchanged. Past mid-September, downstream sectors continue to show mild recovery, with the peak season performance being generally modest. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises are successively finalizing holiday arrangements, and pre-holiday stocking demand is providing phased support to spot prices.

【SMM Analysis】 In recent years, Mexico’s aluminium trade volume has steadily increased. Since the country lacks domestic production capacity for alumina and primary aluminium, it relies heavily on imports of raw aluminium materials from overseas, while recycling domestically generated aluminium scrap. From 2020 to 2024, imports of raw aluminium materials rose from 648,000 metric tons to 1.141 million metric tons—a year-on-year increase of 176%. As scrap aluminium prices surged, downstream manufacturers were forced to seek alternative solutions. Looking ahead, Mexico’s market is expected to shift its focus more toward the Middle East, with a growing preference for protecting domestic enterprises.