This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. On Monday, five departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)", setting an average annual growth target for the steel industry's value-added at around 4% over the next two years, which was positive for market sentiment. However, demand for finished products was not well released, making it difficult for futures to rise. In the latter part of the week, six departments announced a strict ban on new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, requiring that new or renovation projects must formulate capacity replacement plans. Expectations of anti-involution resurfaced, coupled with MoM improvement in finished product inventory data, leading to a retreat of bear funds and a slight rise in futures. However, by the weekend, both the US and the EU announced they are expected to impose new tariffs on China, causing futures to decline again. On the spot market side, suppressed by futures, pre-holiday procurement demand this week was not significant...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Market Fluctuated Upward in the Midday Session, Pre-Holiday Capital Games Intensified] On September 26, 2025, during the midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2511 contract showed an upward fluctuation pattern. By the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was quoted at 274,570 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, an increase of about 0.4%. In the night session, SHFE tin was in the doldrums, closing slightly lower at the end. Today's morning session opened with range-bound fluctuations, trading atmosphere was somewhat cautious during the session, and prices saw a slight uptick towards the close. In external markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price performed relatively firm; overnight, LME tin closed at $34,440/mt, up $119, a gain of 0.35%. During the Asian session, LME tin was quoted at $34,515/mt, showing a technically upward fluctuation trend.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Low Inventory Continues to Support Tin Prices] On the midday of September 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated at highs. By the midday close, the most-traded contract was quoted at 271,960 yuan/mt, up 1,710 yuan or about 0.63% from the previous trading day, with the trading range between 269,880 yuan/mt and 272,110 yuan/mt. SHFE tin futures rose with fluctuations after opening today, showing a corrective rebound trend in futures. In external markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price closed up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt, an increase of $250 from the previous session. The low inventory situation supported tin prices. During the Asian session, LME tin prices consolidated gains above the $34,000/mt level, showing a tendency to fluctuate upward technically.

[SMM Tin Futures Review: Expectations of Loose Market Liquidity Support Tin Prices, SHFE Tin Prices Rise Slightly Intraday] On September 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. At the midday break, it was tentatively quoted at 271,960 yuan/mt, up 1,710 yuan, or 0.63%, from the previous trading day. In the afternoon session, the gains were further consolidated, closing at 271,650 yuan/mt, with an intraday increase of 0.52%. The trading range for the day was between 269,880 yuan/mt and 272,530 yuan/mt. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin prices also strengthened, closing up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt. During the Asian trading session, prices consolidated above the $34,000/mt level, but experienced a slight correction to around $34,400/mt during European trading hours, showing a technically fluctuating upward trend.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs in Midday Trading, Supported by Tight Supply-Demand Balance and Improved Macro Sentiment] On September 24, 2025, during the midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract was temporarily quoted at 271,960 yuan/mt, up 1,710 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of approximately 0.63%. The trading range during the session was between 269,880 yuan/mt and 272,110 yuan/mt. Today, SHFE tin futures fluctuated upward after opening, with the futures showing a trend of corrective rebound. In external markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price closed up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt, an increase of $250 from the previous trading day. The low inventory situation provided support for tin prices. During the Asian session, LME tin prices consolidated gains above the $34,000 mark, showing a technically strong trend of fluctuating upward.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Under Pressure and in the Doldrums, Awaiting New Drivers Amid Weak Supply-Demand and Macro Game] On the morning of September 23, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2510) showed a weak and fluctuating pattern during the morning trading session. Pressured by intertwined bullish and bearish factors on the macro front and a sluggish supply-demand fundamental, the price ultimately remained under pressure. At the midday break, the most-traded contract was tentatively quoted at 271,000 yuan/mt, down 360 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a decrease of approximately 0.13%. Spot trades in the domestic market continued to be sluggish. Overnight, the decline in the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price put pressure on domestic market sentiment. LME tin closed at $34,020/mt, down $200 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.58%. During the Asian trading session today, the LME tin price continued to hover around the $34,000/mt mark, showing a technical consolidation trend.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Low Inventory and Demand Expectations Resonate, SHFE Tin Holds Firm at Highs in Midday Trading] On the morning of September 22, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) showed a trend of opening lower and then rising, fluctuating at highs during the morning session. In the night session, the contract closed at 271,480 yuan/mt, surging by 3,010 yuan, a gain of 1.12%. After the morning opening, buying interest surged, rapidly driving up the price, which once touched a high of 273,570 yuan during the session, indicating strong support below and robust market bullish sentiment.

 Recently, the secondary copper rod market is at a critical stage where policy adjustments and market fundamentals are interacting. According to the latest data, the operating rate for secondary copper rod this week was 22.67%, up significantly by 9.15 percentage points WoW and also rising 10.38 percentage points YoY. This change was mainly driven by the resumption of normal operations by enterprises in Tianjin and Anhui.

This week, the secondary copper rod market exhibited a complex situation under the dual influence of macro policies and price fluctuations. After the US Fed announced a 25bp interest rate cut in September, the exhaustion of positive factors triggered profit-taking and capital outflows, leading to a significant pullback in copper prices, with a cumulative decline of over 1,000 yuan/mt by Thursday this week. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was reported at 73,500–73,700 yuan/mt, down 900 yuan/mt WoW. The rapid pullback in copper prices reduced suppliers' willingness to sell recycled copper raw materials, and the supplier sentiment index compiled by SMM fell from 2.29 to 2.26.

This week, the ferrous metals series initially rose before weakening and stabilizing in the doldrums. HRC, constrained by fundamental pressures, performed worse than other varieties. The key turning point this week was the US Fed's interest rate cut. In the first half of the week, before the rate cut was implemented, macro expectations remained, coupled with rumors of a halt in Xinjiang thermal coal production, leading to a relatively strong overall performance in the ferrous metals series. In the latter half of the week, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with no surprises, prompting some capital to exit. From the fundamentals of finished products, rebar showed a short-term inventory turning point, while HRC inventory continued to accumulate. Under fundamental pressure, HRC's performance remained weak.