SMM Analysis:Winter Stockpiling Phase Is Approaching, How Are September Imported Zinc Ore Volumes Expected?

SMM September 22 News:

According to the latest customs data, China imported 567,300 mt in physical content of zinc concentrates in August 2025, down 6.8% MoM (34,100 mt in physical content) but up 30.06% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to August totaled 3.5027 million mt in physical content, up 43.06% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of imports in August 2025 were Peru (107,900 mt in physical content, 23.1%), Australia (80,500 mt in physical content, 17.24%), and Russia (46,100 mt in physical content, 9.87%). MoM, countries such as Australia, Bolivia, and Russia saw significant decreases, while inflows from Peru, Mexico, and the DRC increased to varying degrees.

SMM believes that imported zinc ore volume decreased slightly in August compared to July but remained at a high overall level for the following reasons:

1. Due to mismatched arrival times, some zinc ore experienced concentrated arrivals in July, which normalized in August, leading to a certain MoM decrease;

2. Although the import window for zinc ore remained closed, smelters maintained active production with robust demand for ore, keeping imported zinc ore volumes high.

Entering September, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate significantly, and zinc concentrate TCs rose notably. Although domestic zinc concentrate prices remained strongly competitive, previously secured long-term contracts or locked-price zinc ore continued to flow in. Additionally, with the winter stockpiling phase approaching, smelter demand for imported zinc ore is expected to increase, and import volumes are projected to remain high in September.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)