[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term, Supported by Costs and Stockpiling] Currently, aluminum scrap prices remain relatively firm, providing some cost support for ADC12. Demand side, downstream demand has shown a mild recovery since September, but the peak season performance has fallen short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually arranged shutdown plans, while pre-holiday stocking demand offers short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs combined with stockpiling demand underpin prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory pressure continue to pose constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Allert Warrant Registrations Reach 3,878 mt on First Day, August Imports Still Linger at 70,000 mt Low] Yesterday, aluminum prices edged down, while secondary aluminum market quotes varied, with some falling by 100 yuan/mt and others holding steady. Since September, downstream demand has seen mild recovery, but peak season performance has fallen short of expectations. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises have gradually arranged shutdown plans, with pre-holiday stocking demand providing short-term support to spot prices. Overall, rigid costs coupled with stockpiling demand are supporting prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory pressure remain constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, with close attention needed on raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

SMM, September 22 - According to customs data, China's aluminum profile exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) reached 84,300 tons in Augus 2025, up 0.17% MoM but down 14.94% YoY.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Warrant Business Officially Launched on September 22] Last Friday, the SMM ADC12 price held steady at 20,950 yuan/mt. Recently, aluminum prices have retreated, and aluminum scrap traders' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a marginal improvement in market circulation. Raw material procurement pressure for secondary aluminum plants has slightly eased, but the overall tight supply situation remains unchanged. Past mid-September, downstream sectors continue to show mild recovery, with the peak season performance being generally modest. As the National Day holiday approaches, die-casting enterprises are successively finalizing holiday arrangements, and pre-holiday stocking demand is providing phased support to spot prices.

【SMM Analysis】 In recent years, Mexico’s aluminium trade volume has steadily increased. Since the country lacks domestic production capacity for alumina and primary aluminium, it relies heavily on imports of raw aluminium materials from overseas, while recycling domestically generated aluminium scrap. From 2020 to 2024, imports of raw aluminium materials rose from 648,000 metric tons to 1.141 million metric tons—a year-on-year increase of 176%. As scrap aluminium prices surged, downstream manufacturers were forced to seek alternative solutions. Looking ahead, Mexico’s market is expected to shift its focus more toward the Middle East, with a growing preference for protecting domestic enterprises.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】The European Union (EU) is one of the key exporters of scrap metals such as aluminium and copper globally. Amidst the ever-changing global political and economic market, the European market has been slowly inching towards a relatively careful approach towards their exports of scrap metal, which are key materials for the development of local industries, especially towards low carbon emission goals. As the scrap metals were not included in the tariffs outlined in Section 232, they are included under the general tariffs of 15% for EU exports to the US. Under this circumstance, European Aluminium acted as one of the biggest voices of the EU aluminium industries, actively highlighting how the USA’s tariffs make it an unfairly favourable export destination. This might lead into, not only the EU, but the global flow of scrap metal being preferentially exported to the US, leading to a larger shortage of metal scrap when markets are already struggling to fulfill their domestic demand for scrap as a raw material, creating pressure for local businesses and industries to stay afloat.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Social Inventory of Aluminum Alloy Continues Buildup Pace, Focus on Warrant Registration Next Week] Overall, influenced by the US Fed's interest rate cut realization, macro sentiment was under pressure, while fundamentals saw a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: cost rigidity and pre-holiday stockpiling demand provided support, but weak demand recovery and inventory buildup risks posed constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

Futures side, in the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,860 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 20,860 yuan/mt and the lowest at 20,780 yuan/mt, closing at 20,800 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt or 0.07% from the previous close.

[SMM Analysis]Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell During the Week, Warrant Generation Set to Begin May Introduce New Market Variables