On 24 September 2025, Freeport announced output cuts at its Grasberg copper concentrate project in Indonesia due to force-majeure factors — one of the most market-moving shocks to the copper complex this year. The company also lowered its production guidance for 2025 and 2026, prompting sharp market attention and pushing LME copper up ~3.5% that day. By 25 September 2025, LME copper hit a year-to-date high of $10,485/tonne. Below is a brief analysis of the impact of the Grasberg production cut on the electrolytic/ refined-copper market.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices hit a new high for the year and are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, which is expected to significantly dampen downstream stocking sentiment. During the day, spot premiums/discounts for SHFE copper did not show a notable decline and are expected to continue trading around a small discount tomorrow.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were at a discount of 100-80 yuan/mt today, with an average discount of 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 82,070 to 82,700 yuan/mt, with an average of 82,385 yuan/mt, up 2,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $9,957.5/mt overnight, touched a low of $9,927.5/mt at the opening before rallying sharply, then copper prices continued to rise, approaching a high of $10,364/mt near the close, and finally settled at $10,320/mt, up 3.27%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest at 290,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2511 opened higher with a gap at 81,000 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 80,750 yuan/mt early in the session before rising steadily, reached a high of 82,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels, and finally settled at 82,610 yuan/mt, up 3.28%, with trading volume at 214,000 lots and open interest at 218,000 lots.