Supply and Demand Both Decline, Rare Earth Prices May Continue To Fluctuate Rangebound【SMM Analysis】

Published: Sep 19, 2025 16:27

Save

This week, rare earth prices fluctuated rangebound, and the market is expected to remain unlikely to break through the current price range. This situation is primarily driven by contractions on both the supply and demand sides, along with intense competition between upstream and downstream players.
Demand side, the traditional September-October peak season effect did not materialize as expected, as demand had been front-loaded earlier, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders for magnetic material enterprises in September. Currently, most magnetic material enterprises have order-taking and production schedules covering one to one and a half months. Downstream buyers’ procurement enthusiasm has weakened, providing insufficient support for rare earth raw material prices.
Supply side, production costs for upstream separation enterprises and metal plants remain high, making raw material suppliers generally resistant to lowering prices and reluctant to drive down prices for sales, thereby providing a floor for prices and limiting downside room. Meanwhile, some separation plants plan to gradually implement production halts in September and October. While this may tighten supply to some extent, most market participants remain pessimistic about rare earth demand in October and generally expect no significant improvement in overall demand in Q4.
Taking all factors into account, the market is expected to exhibit a weak supply-demand balance: downstream users are cautious in procurement with shrinking orders, while suppliers face high costs and are unwilling to make concessions. Against this backdrop of a supply-demand stalemate, psychological and behavioral tug-of-war between buyers and sellers will intensify, making it difficult for either side to dominate price trends unilaterally. In summary, the Pr-Nd oxide market is currently in a balance where neither rise nor fall is easy—lacking demand boost for an upward move and facing cost resistance against a decline. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in the near term.

rare earth market prices rare earth metals prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

3 hours ago

US Rare Earth Company Partners with Canadian SRC to Build $40M Heavy Rare Earth Metal Facility

US rare earth company REalloys announced that it is partnering with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) of Canada to build a heavy rare earth metal facility. The equipment will be built at SRC’s Saskatoon plant and, after commissioning, relocated to Ohio to supply dysprosium and terbium to clients in the US defense industrial base and to the Defense Logistics Agency’s strategic reserves. The facility will cost $40 million and is expected to produce 30 mt of dysprosium metal and 15 mt of terbium metal annually. Initial operations are targeted for early to mid-2027, with full commercial operations expected from mid-2027 to year-end.

3 hours ago

4 hours ago

Pr-Nd Oxide Prices Recover, Transactions at 802,000-803,000 Yuan/mt; Alloy Prices Stable

This afternoon, quotations for Pr-Nd oxide further recovered, with current mainstream offers from suppliers concentrated in the range of 800,000-805,000 yuan/mt. Some plants disclosed that there had already been a small number of transactions for Pr-Nd oxide in the market at 802,000-803,000 yuan/mt, while the actual transaction price of Pr-Nd alloy was within the range of 990,000-1 million yuan/mt. In contrast, quotations in the medium-heavy rare earth market remained stable, with no significant fluctuations.

4 hours ago

6 hours ago

Rare Earth Prices Fell First and Then Rose, with Wide Swings in Pr-Nd, Dysprosium, and Terbium [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fell First, Then Rose; Pr-Nd, Dysprosium, and Terbium Saw Wide Swings] Due to the combined impact of market news and falling futures prices, suppliers in the Pr-Nd oxide market lacked confidence in the future market and proactively cut prices for shipments. However, upstream separation plants believed that the tight supply pattern of Pr-Nd oxide had not changed. Therefore, Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back to 760,000-780,000 yuan/mt before rebounding to 790,000-800,000 yuan/mt.

6 hours ago