Supply and Demand Both Decline, Rare Earth Prices May Continue To Fluctuate Rangebound【SMM Analysis】

This week, rare earth prices fluctuated rangebound, and the market is expected to remain unlikely to break through the current price range. This situation is primarily driven by contractions on both the supply and demand sides, along with intense competition between upstream and downstream players.
Demand side, the traditional September-October peak season effect did not materialize as expected, as demand had been front-loaded earlier, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders for magnetic material enterprises in September. Currently, most magnetic material enterprises have order-taking and production schedules covering one to one and a half months. Downstream buyers’ procurement enthusiasm has weakened, providing insufficient support for rare earth raw material prices.
Supply side, production costs for upstream separation enterprises and metal plants remain high, making raw material suppliers generally resistant to lowering prices and reluctant to drive down prices for sales, thereby providing a floor for prices and limiting downside room. Meanwhile, some separation plants plan to gradually implement production halts in September and October. While this may tighten supply to some extent, most market participants remain pessimistic about rare earth demand in October and generally expect no significant improvement in overall demand in Q4.
Taking all factors into account, the market is expected to exhibit a weak supply-demand balance: downstream users are cautious in procurement with shrinking orders, while suppliers face high costs and are unwilling to make concessions. Against this backdrop of a supply-demand stalemate, psychological and behavioral tug-of-war between buyers and sellers will intensify, making it difficult for either side to dominate price trends unilaterally. In summary, the Pr-Nd oxide market is currently in a balance where neither rise nor fall is easy—lacking demand boost for an upward move and facing cost resistance against a decline. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in the near term.