Shanghai (Gasgoo)- Preliminary estimates from the China Automobile Dealers Association suggest that China's passenger vehicle retail sales is likely to reach roughly 2.15 million units in September 2025, a month-on-month increase of about 6.5% and a year-on-year rise near 2.0%. New energy vehicles are projected to account for roughly 1.25 million of those sales, lifting NEV penetration to around 58.1%.
For clarity, the PVs mentioned here are all locally produced on the Chinese mainland.
As the industry enters the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" selling season, automakers are expected to intensify end-of-quarter promotions to shore up volumes. That push comes against a backdrop of tighter and adjusted regional trade-in subsidies, which could inject volatility into demand. Because last year's comparable period benefited from unusually strong trade-in incentives, analysts will be watching whether September's year-on-year growth narrows even as month-on-month momentum holds.
Weekly dynamics are forecast to reflect that mixed picture. The first week is expected to start softer — influenced by the back-to-school calendar and the staggered implementation of policy details — with average daily retail sales seen at about 43,500 units. From the second week onward, the rollout of purchase subsidies and stepped-up manufacturer promotions should lift activity to roughly 59,500 daily units.
Momentum is then projected to build through the third week, to about 68,100 units per day (helped in part by a low base last year), and to accelerate in the fourth week as companies chase quarterly targets, with daily sales forecast near 105,900 units.
Taken together, the projections point to steady month-on-month gains led by NEVs, but a slightly softer year-on-year increase because of the high base effect from last year's incentive-driven sales. Going forward, policy moves on trade-in programs and the strength of manufacturer promotions will remain the key variables likely to shape the rest of the quarter.
