The Southeast Asian steel industry stands at a critical historical juncture. On one hand, the region is experiencing an unprecedented wave of capacity expansion, with Chinese capital-driven investments planning to add over 100 million mt of new capacity, and a duopoly between Vietnam and Indonesia has already taken shape. On the other hand, the EU carbon border tax and global decarbonization requirements are compelling industry to undergo a green transformation, posing severe challenges to traditional development models. Key trends indicate that a capacity race and green transformation are advancing in tandem; regional supply chains are being restructured, with self-sufficiency rates increasing, yet high-end products still rely on imports; national infrastructure projects provide solid support for demand, but the risk of overcapacity cannot be ignored. The key to future competition lies in balancing scale expansion with quality improvement, traditional capacity with green transformation, and short-term gains with long-term sustainability. Enterprises that can achieve breakthroughs in low-carbon technologies, product structures, and market positioning will take the lead in the next round of industrial reshuffling. The major transformation in Southeast Asia's steel industry is not only reshaping the regional industrial landscape but also profoundly impact global steel trade and supply chains.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief] Supply side, coking plants still maintain certain profits with stable production levels and sufficient coke supply. However, Tangshan issued emission reduction measures requiring a 30% extension of coking time, leading to reduced regional supply. Demand side, steel mill profits are moderate, and blast furnace operations remain at high levels, but purchase willingness from mills is weak. Additionally, Tangshan received an emission reduction notice requiring some steel mills to implement production cuts within a specified period, further suppressing coke demand. Overall, coke fundamentals have improved slightly. Coupled with pre-National Day restocking expectations and stable cost support, the coke market is expected to remain steady in the short term.

SMM Steel, September 16 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in mainstream markets this week were 231,500 mt, down 2.73% WoW. By market:

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief Review] Supply side, coke producers' profitability remains moderate, with strong production enthusiasm. However, downstream purchase enthusiasm has declined, posing a risk of inventory buildup for coke producers. Demand side, finished products are accumulating in inventory, and coupled with good coke arrivals at steel mills, their coke inventory has increased. Some mills have begun controlling the pace of arrivals. Overall, with the peak season performance of finished products being average, steel mills have slowed down their procurement pace for coke. Coke supply and demand are relatively loose, and the coke market may operate in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing] On the news side, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong implemented the second round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective at 00:00 on September 15, 2025. In terms of supply, coking plants still maintain certain profits, and most of them have high production enthusiasm, leading to an increase in coke supply. However, the pace of shipments from coking plants has slowed down, resulting in inventory accumulation. On the demand side, steel mills have gradually resumed production, and hot metal output has rebounded rapidly, creating rigid demand for coke. Nevertheless, current coke inventories at steel mills are relatively sufficient, and coupled with the underperformance of the finished steel market, steel mills still have a desire to bargain down coke prices. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance for coke is accumulating, and the coke market may remain in the doldrums in the short term.

This week, the ferrous metals series showed a divergent trend, with ore prices initially strong then weakening, coking coal and coke prices fluctuating rangebound, the most-traded rebar contract moving in a volatile pattern, and the most-traded HRC contract performing in the doldrums. On the news front, early in the week, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's steel exports in August 2025 reached 9.51 million mt, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel exports totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY, with cumulative exports still higher than the same period last year, indicating strong export resilience...

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] News-wise, some steel mills in Tangshan, Tianjin, and other regions implemented a second round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on September 15, 2025. In terms of supply, coke production profits remain moderate, prompting coke producers to ramp up production, leading to a steady increase in coke output. However, coke shipments have slowed, raising sales pressure. Demand side, finished steel demand fell short of expectations, and finished steel prices fluctuated downward, narrowing steel mill profits. Coupled with rising coke inventory at steel mills, some buyers have slowed their procurement pace. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are gradually loosening, and with weakened cost support, the coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with coke prices anticipated to see a second round of cuts.