[SMM Analysis]Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell During the Week, Warrant Generation Set to Begin May Introduce New Market Variables

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Interest Rate Cut Meets Expectations but Powell's Hawkish Stance; Strong Aluminum Market Fundamentals Seek Support]

On Wednesday, September 17, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released data on its website showing the global production and consumption of refined nickel, refined lead, primary aluminum and refined tin, with details below.

Futures side, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,890 yuan/mt in the previous trading day's night session, with the highest price at 20,890 yuan/mt, the lowest at 20,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,750 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt or 0.91% from the previous close.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: US Fed Cut Interest Rate by 25 bps, Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell Overnight] On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, fueling market risk-off sentiment and causing overnight futures to decline. Fundamentals side, current ADC12 prices are strongly supported by costs, coupled with downstream stocking demand ahead of the National Day holiday. Short-term prices are expected to hover at highs. Close attention should be paid going forward to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, and potential market impacts from policy developments.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Prices Hover at Highs, ADC12 Driven by Costs Unlikely to Decline in the Short Term] Overall, current ADC12 prices are strongly supported by costs, coupled with downstream stocking demand ahead of the National Day holiday. It is expected to maintain a pattern of fluctuating at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, and potential market impacts from policy developments.

Futures side, during the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 21,045 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,055 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,995 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,000 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous close.