Overall, from a macro perspective, the market continues to digest expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the pullback in the US dollar provides some support for copper prices. Domestically, expectations for the September peak season demand are still being contested, spot cargo transactions show limited improvement, and the supply-demand imbalance has not been fundamentally resolved. Technically, SHFE copper has regained a firm footing above the 80,000 yuan mark. In the short term, resistance is expected around 80,350–80,500 yuan, with support near 79,600 yuan. Prices are likely to maintain a pattern of fluctuating upward within a range.

According to customs data, China's  total refined-copper imports in August 2025 were 264,300 tonnes, down 10.99% MoM. but up 5.87%YoY. Exports were 36,800 tonnes, down 68.93% MoM and up 19.4% YoY.Overall imports came in below market expectations.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of copper plate/sheet and strip reached 11,675.75 mt in August 2025, up 10.87% MoM but down 6.49% YoY. From January to August, cumulative exports of copper plate/sheet and strip totaled 82,745.74 mt, a cumulative decrease of 0.03% YoY.

China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap reached 179,400 mt in physical content in August 2025, down 5.64% MoM but increasing slightly by 5.79% YoY.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of copper enamelled wire reached 12,806 mt in August 2025, up 25.82% YoY and up 2.09% MoM. From January to August, total exports amounted to 94,935.7 mt, up 25.41% YoY cumulatively. (HS code 85441100)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices stabilizing at 80,000 yuan/mt has somewhat weakened downstream stocking sentiment. However, due to the continuous replenishment of imported supplies, spot premiums are expected to struggle to rise, with overall transactions likely to hover around parity.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 90-70 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 80,010 to 80,160 yuan/mt, with an average of 80,085 yuan/mt, up 245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.