Last week, Pr-Nd oxide prices fell to 550,000 yuan/mt and then rebounded rapidly, rising to 580,000 yuan/mt as of today. A deep analysis of the reasons behind this bottoming out of Pr-Nd oxide prices reveals that the shift in market supply and demand sentiment was undoubtedly the most critical driving factor. When Pr-Nd prices pulled back to relatively low levels, the procurement mindset of enterprises across the industry chain, both upstream and downstream, changed significantly. For alloy plants and magnetic material enterprises, lower Pr-Nd prices meant lower procurement costs, thereby boosting their purchase willingness. Particularly in the latter half of last week, large magnetic material enterprises collectively conducted tender activities. This move not only directly drove a short-term sharp rise in demand for Pr-Nd alloy but also sent a positive demand signal to the market, further stimulating the procurement enthusiasm of other enterprises.
At the same time, traders were optimistic about prices being at the bottom range and actively restocked to go long. On the other hand, suppliers were unwilling to continue driving down prices to sell at current levels, leading to a tightening of spot cargo circulating in the market. Under the dual effects of rising demand and reduced supply, Pr-Nd oxide prices naturally rose in response, successfully bottoming out.
However, looking ahead, the momentum for Pr-Nd prices to continue rising significantly may not be strong. Demand side, the traditionally expected peak season of September-October, which the market had been anticipating, saw some demand actually front-loaded. Downstream enterprises had already conducted a certain degree of procurement and stockpiling earlier, resulting in no significant surge in actual new orders at present. In particular, magnetic material enterprises mostly procured based on rigid demand, with no large-scale sustained restocking. If end-user demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles and home appliances falls short of expectations, showing weak growth or even a decline, then Pr-Nd prices would undoubtedly face significant difficulties in breaking through the current price range in the short term. Overall, in the absence of sustained strong demand support, Pr-Nd prices are likely to show a volatile and consolidating trend.
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