【SMM analysis】Market Dynamics of Power Battery Supply and Tiered Cells（9.1-9.5）

Published: Sep 12, 2025 18:01

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This week, the nickel and cobalt coefficients for materials like ternary and lithium cobalt oxide black mass saw a slight increase due to rising salt prices, while the lithium coefficient fell after aprevious drop.The lithium point price for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) black mass also fluctuated within a range this week.

From an overall data perspective, the supply side shows that both the power and energy storage markets have entered a phase of demand growth by the end of August. In the power sector, upstream power cell production has already increased to proactively address the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" automobile sales peak and meet the stocking needs of car manufacturers for their year-end sales push.

However, the total volume of retired batteries on the demand side remains stable and has not changed in sync with the increase in power cell production. This is mainly because power batteries installed earlier are still in their normal service cycle and have not yet entered the large-scale retirement phase.

The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices should, in theory, alleviate cost pressures on tiered cells. However, due to the time lag in the transmission of terminal prices to the downstream industry chain and the relatively stable supply-demand relationship in the tiered utilization market, upstream cell manufacturers still have a strong willingness to maintain high prices for tiered cells. These two factors offset each other, and it is expected that tiered cell prices will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Overall, the upward potential for tiered cell prices is expected to be limited in the future. Most companies continue to operate with low inventory levels, and to avoid price fluctuation risks, procurement activities are primarily focused on meeting immediate production needs.

Output Scrap metal prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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