This week, the ferrous metals series showed a divergent trend, with ore prices initially strong then weakening, coking coal and coke prices fluctuating rangebound, the most-traded rebar contract moving in a volatile pattern, and the most-traded HRC contract performing in the doldrums. On the news front, early in the week, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's steel exports in August 2025 reached 9.51 million mt, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel exports totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY, with cumulative exports still higher than the same period last year, indicating strong export resilience...

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] News-wise, some steel mills in Tangshan, Tianjin, and other regions implemented a second round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on September 15, 2025. In terms of supply, coke production profits remain moderate, prompting coke producers to ramp up production, leading to a steady increase in coke output. However, coke shipments have slowed, raising sales pressure. Demand side, finished steel demand fell short of expectations, and finished steel prices fluctuated downward, narrowing steel mill profits. Coupled with rising coke inventory at steel mills, some buyers have slowed their procurement pace. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are gradually loosening, and with weakened cost support, the coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with coke prices anticipated to see a second round of cuts.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing] Supply side, coking plants maintain high production levels, but downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Some coking plants have seen a slight accumulation of coke inventory, with a strong willingness to sell. Demand side, steel mills are operating normally, with most maintaining reasonable coke inventory levels. A few steel mills have relatively high inventory and have begun controlling arrivals. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are gradually loosening, and the short-term coke market may be in the doldrums, with expectations of a second round of price cuts strengthening.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Supply side, coke producers' profits are moderate, production enthusiasm is high, and coke supply continues to increase. However, downstream purchases are cautious, and coke producers' shipment pace has slowed down. Demand side, after the military parade, hot metal production at steel mills is gradually recovering, but end-use consumption lacks significant improvement. Additionally, increased coke inventory at steel mills has weakened their purchase enthusiasm. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance for coke has emerged, some steel mills still have a desire to bargain down prices, and the coke market may be in the doldrums in the short term, with a second round of price cuts expected for coke.

SMM Steel September 9 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week reached 238,000 mt, down 0.87% WoW. By market:  

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Market Review] In terms of supply, coke price cuts and coking coal price adjustments occurred simultaneously. Most coke producers still maintained favorable profits, and with the conclusion of production restrictions for the military parade, coke plant operations gradually resumed, leading to an increase in coke production. This forced coke producers to actively ship their products. On the demand side, the impact of the traditional peak season has yet to materialize, with end-user purchases of finished steel remaining sluggish. Steel mills saw inventory accumulation, and with improved coke deliveries, most mills' coke inventories have reached reasonable levels, shifting to purchasing as needed. In summary, cost support for coke weakened, and the coke supply and demand balance tilted toward loosening. In the short term, coke prices may remain under pressure.

Last week, China's steel export prices fluctuated rangebound by $1-5/mt. By product type, HRC prices fell by $1-5/mt, medium-thickness plates dropped by $3/mt, while cold-rolled products and silicon steel demonstrated strong resilience, showing slight increases. Last week, prices of mainstream resource varieties in the Thai market remained stable, with galvanizing CFR Thailand transaction prices at $530~535/mt and wire rod CFR transaction prices at $520-525/mt. According to local processing enterprises, transactions were in the doldrums last week, with downstream purchases cooling off and shipments remaining average.

Per SMM survey data, China's steel mills planned HRC exports for September reached 935,000 mt, up 11,000 mt (1.2% MoM) from August's actual exports. Improved production margins prompted pace adjustments, while recent customs scrutiny boosted order intake for some mills, driving the planned volume increase.