National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): August CPI Down 0.4% YoY, Flat MoM

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% YoY in August 2025. Urban areas saw a 0.3% decline, while rural areas dropped 0.6%. Food prices decreased 4.3%, while non-food prices rose 0.5%. Consumer goods prices fell 1.0%, while service prices increased 0.6%. From January to August, the average CPI declined 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In August, the CPI remained flat MoM. Urban areas showed no change, while rural areas rose 0.1%. Food prices increased 0.5%, while non-food prices dropped 0.1%. Consumer goods prices edged up 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged.

CPI Fell 0.4% YoY and Remained Flat MoM in August 2025

In August 2025, China's CPI declined 0.4% YoY. Urban areas dropped 0.3%, while rural areas fell 0.6%. Food prices decreased 4.3%, while non-food prices rose 0.5%. Consumer goods prices dropped 1.0%, while service prices increased 0.6%. From January to August, the average CPI fell 0.1% compared with the same period last year.

In August, the CPI remained flat MoM. Urban areas showed no change, while rural areas rose 0.1%. Food prices increased 0.5%, while non-food prices dropped 0.1%. Consumer goods prices edged up 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged.

I. YoY Price Changes of Goods and Services

In August, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 2.5% YoY, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.72 percentage points. Within the food category, fresh vegetable prices dropped 15.2%, pulling the CPI down by about 0.37 percentage points; egg prices declined 12.4%, reducing the CPI by around 0.08 percentage points; livestock meat prices fell 8.0%, lowering the CPI by approximately 0.25 percentage points (with pork prices down 16.1%, contributing to a 0.24 percentage point CPI decline); fresh fruit prices decreased 3.7%, dragging the CPI down by about 0.08 percentage points; grain prices dropped 0.8%, reducing the CPI by around 0.01 percentage points; while aquatic product prices rose 2.2%, pushing the CPI up by about 0.04 percentage points.

Among the other seven major categories, six saw YoY price increases while one declined. Prices for other goods and services, clothing, and household goods and services rose 8.6%, 1.8%, and 1.8% respectively; education, culture, and entertainment, healthcare, and housing prices increased 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively; while transportation and communication prices fell 2.4%.

II. MoM Price Changes of Goods and Services

In August, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol rose 0.3% MoM, pushing the CPI up by approximately 0.09 percentage points. Among food items, fresh vegetable prices rose 8.5%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase; egg prices rose 1.5%, contributing about 0.01 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell 2.8%, dragging down CPI by around 0.06 percentage points; aquatic product prices dropped 0.9%, pulling CPI down by about 0.02 percentage points; pork prices declined 0.5%, reducing CPI by roughly 0.01 percentage points.

Among the other seven major categories, prices showed one increase, two stabilizations, and four declines MoM. Specifically, healthcare prices rose 0.3%; housing and other goods/services prices remained flat; transportation/communication prices fell 0.3%, while clothing, household goods/services, and education/culture/entertainment prices each dropped 0.1%.

Core CPI Continued Rebound in August 2025 with Narrower PPI YoY Decline

—NBS Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of August 2025 CPI and PPI Data

In August, the consumer market operated steadily overall. The CPI remained unchanged MoM but fell 0.4% YoY. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.9% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive month of expanding growth. With continuous optimization of domestic market competition and improved supply-demand relationships in some industries, the PPI shifted from a 0.2% MoM drop in the previous month to stabilization, while the YoY decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points to 2.9%.

I. Core CPI's Sustained Rebound

The YoY CPI shift from stability to decline primarily resulted from higher base effects from the same period last year coupled with weaker-than-seasonal food price increases this month. The carryover effect of past price changes contributed approximately -0.9 percentage points to the YoY CPI, with a 0.4-percentage-point stronger downward pull than last month. New price increases remained flat MoM, underperforming seasonal patterns by about 0.3 percentage points. These factors jointly drove the YoY CPI downward. By category, food prices were particularly weak. Food prices rose 0.5% MoM, underperforming seasonal trends by roughly 1.1 percentage points, with pork, eggs, and fresh fruit prices all showing weaker movements than typical seasonality. YoY food prices fell 4.3%, accelerating the decline by 2.7 percentage points MoM, exerting a 0.51-percentage-point stronger downward pull on YoY CPI than last month—exceeding the overall CPI YoY decline. Specifically, pork, fresh vegetable, and egg prices dropped 16.1%, 15.2%, and 14.2% YoY respectively, with declines widening by 6.6, 7.6, and 1.3 percentage points MoM. Fresh fruit prices shifted from a 2.8% YoY increase last month to a 3.7% decrease, with these four items collectively contributing 0.47 percentage points more downward pressure on YoY CPI than last month. Non-food prices rose 0.5%, marking the third consecutive month of expanding growth, contributing approximately 0.43 percentage points to the YoY CPI increase.

As policies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption continued to take effect, the YoY growth of core CPI expanded for the fourth consecutive month. This month, core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.9% YoY, with the growth rate widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 1.5% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Within industrial consumer goods, prices of gold and platinum jewelry rose 36.7% and 29.8% YoY, respectively, jointly contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the YoY CPI increase. Prices of household appliances and durable recreational goods saw their YoY growth rates expand to 4.6% and 2.4%, respectively, jointly contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the YoY CPI increase. Prices of fuel-powered passenger cars narrowed their YoY decline further to 2.3%. Service prices have seen their YoY growth gradually expand since March, rising 0.6% this month, with the growth rate widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the YoY CPI increase. Among them, prices of domestic services and hairdressing rose 2.3% and 1.0% YoY, respectively, remaining relatively stable. Prices of medical services and education services rose 1.6% and 1.2% YoY, respectively, while prices of vehicle rentals and tourism rose 0.8% and 0.7% YoY, respectively, all showing expanded growth rates.

II. Narrowing YoY Decline in PPI

PPI MoM ended its eight-month consecutive decline, shifting from a 0.2% drop last month to flat this month. The main characteristics of this month's MoM PPI changes were: First, improved supply-demand relationships led to price rebounds in some energy and raw material industries. Coal processing prices shifted from a 4.7% drop last month to a 9.7% increase this month, coal mining and washing prices turned from a 1.5% decline to a 2.8% rise, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing prices shifted from a 0.3% decline to a 1.9% increase, glass manufacturing prices turned from a 1.5% drop to a 0.1% rise, and power and heat production and supply prices changed from a 0.9% decline to a 0.1% increase. Second, imported factors led to MoM price pullbacks in domestic petroleum and some nonferrous metal industries. International nonferrous metal prices fluctuated at highs, while domestic nonferrous metals smelting and rolling processing prices rose 0.2%, with the growth rate pulling back by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, gold smelting and aluminum smelting prices both rose 0.2%, while copper smelting prices fell 1.1%. Declining international oil prices drove domestic petroleum extraction and refined petroleum product manufacturing prices down by 1.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

The PPI registered a YoY decline of 2.9%, with the drop narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first contraction since March this year. Apart from the lower base effect from the same period last year, China's intensified implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies has led to positive price changes in some sectors. First, the continuous optimization of domestic market competition order contributed to the narrowing of YoY price declines in related industries. With the in-depth advancement of building a unified national market, the disorderly competition among enterprises has been addressed, and capacity management in key industries has been carried out in an orderly manner, resulting in a narrower YoY decline in prices for related sectors. The YoY price drops for coal processing, ferrous metals smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, PV equipment and components manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 10.3, 6.0, 3.2, 2.8, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, reducing the downward drag on the PPI by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, which was the main reason for the narrowing of the PPI's YoY decline. Second, the steady growth of new development momentum drove a YoY rebound in prices for related industries. The robust growth of emerging industries, deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation, and improved quality and efficiency in green development contributed to a YoY price recovery in relevant sectors. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing rose by 1.1%, ship and related equipment manufacturing increased by 0.9%, communication system equipment manufacturing climbed by 0.3%, and solid waste treatment equipment prices edged up by 0.3%. Prices for electronic specialty materials manufacturing and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing stabilized after dropping by 1.6% and 0.5% in the previous month, while the price decline for waste resource comprehensive utilization narrowed by 5.4 percentage points. Third, increased demand for upgraded consumption boosted YoY price increases in certain industries. Prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing surged by 13.0%, sports ball manufacturing rose by 4.7%, traditional Chinese musical instrument manufacturing increased by 1.6%, nutritional food manufacturing climbed by 0.9%, specialized sports equipment and accessories manufacturing advanced by 0.4%, and health food manufacturing edged up by 0.3%.