[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Supply side, coke producers' profits are moderate, production enthusiasm is high, and coke supply continues to increase. However, downstream purchases are cautious, and coke producers' shipment pace has slowed down. Demand side, after the military parade, hot metal production at steel mills is gradually recovering, but end-use consumption lacks significant improvement. Additionally, increased coke inventory at steel mills has weakened their purchase enthusiasm. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance for coke has emerged, some steel mills still have a desire to bargain down prices, and the coke market may be in the doldrums in the short term, with a second round of price cuts expected for coke.

SMM Steel September 9 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week reached 238,000 mt, down 0.87% WoW. By market:  

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Market Review] In terms of supply, coke price cuts and coking coal price adjustments occurred simultaneously. Most coke producers still maintained favorable profits, and with the conclusion of production restrictions for the military parade, coke plant operations gradually resumed, leading to an increase in coke production. This forced coke producers to actively ship their products. On the demand side, the impact of the traditional peak season has yet to materialize, with end-user purchases of finished steel remaining sluggish. Steel mills saw inventory accumulation, and with improved coke deliveries, most mills' coke inventories have reached reasonable levels, shifting to purchasing as needed. In summary, cost support for coke weakened, and the coke supply and demand balance tilted toward loosening. In the short term, coke prices may remain under pressure.

Last week, China's steel export prices fluctuated rangebound by $1-5/mt. By product type, HRC prices fell by $1-5/mt, medium-thickness plates dropped by $3/mt, while cold-rolled products and silicon steel demonstrated strong resilience, showing slight increases. Last week, prices of mainstream resource varieties in the Thai market remained stable, with galvanizing CFR Thailand transaction prices at $530~535/mt and wire rod CFR transaction prices at $520-525/mt. According to local processing enterprises, transactions were in the doldrums last week, with downstream purchases cooling off and shipments remaining average.

Per SMM survey data, China's steel mills planned HRC exports for September reached 935,000 mt, up 11,000 mt (1.2% MoM) from August's actual exports. Improved production margins prompted pace adjustments, while recent customs scrutiny boosted order intake for some mills, driving the planned volume increase.

[SMM Daily Coke & Coal Market Review] News-wise, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong initiated the first round of coke price cuts by 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on September 8, 2025. Supply side, with the lifting of environmental protection-driven production restrictions and moderate coke-making profits, coke producers maintained high operating enthusiasm, and coke production is expected to continue increasing. However, downstream procurement slowed down, affecting coke plant shipments. Demand side, post-parade, hot metal output at steel mills is poised for a significant rebound, yet finished steel apparent consumption fell short of expectations. Narrowed steel mill profits strengthened their willingness to suppress coke prices. Overall, market sentiment remains bearish, and the coke market may stay in the doldrums in the short term.

This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a wave-like trend, with iron ore showing relative strength. The week marked the most intensive period of environmental protection-driven production restrictions for the 93rd military parade, leading to a pullback in hot metal production that weakened the rigid demand for coke. The reduced raw material support, coupled with strengthened transportation controls in some northern regions, caused a pause in demand, resulting in an overall weak performance for the ferrous metals series. Prices of multiple varieties dropped to their lowest levels in nearly one and a half months. In the latter half of the week, production resumptions followed the completion of maintenance in the north, triggering a rebound from low price levels. However, the upside room remained constrained by weak finished product data. On the spot market, end-use procurement demand in the north remained under restrictions this week, leading to rapid inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, some markets in south China saw a release of end-use demand...

[SMM Daily Coking Coal Market Review] Supply side, coke producers maintained moderate profit margins, and with the relaxation of environmental protection-driven production restrictions after the military parade, previously idled coke plants gradually resumed operations, leading to an expected increase in coke supply. Demand side, market sentiment turned cautious, coupled with the gradual recovery of logistics post-parade, which significantly improved steel mills' coke arrivals and dampened their procurement enthusiasm. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are shifting toward looser conditions, with short-term prices likely to remain in the doldrums amid heightened downside risks.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal & Coke Market Review] Supply side, coke producers maintained moderate profit margins, and with the conclusion of the military parade event, environmental protection-driven production restrictions are expected to be lifted, leading to a gradual recovery in coke supply. Demand side, steel prices fluctuated downward, coupled with recent improvements in coke arrivals at steel mills and increased coke inventory at some mills, resulting in a slowdown in procurement pace. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are gradually shifting toward looser conditions. In the short term, the coke market may operate in the doldrums, with rising risks of coke price cuts.