On the macro front, the market widely bets on a US Fed interest rate cut in September, but uncertainty remains over the rate cut path within the year, and the US dollar trend may continue to dominate nonferrous metal fluctuations; fundamentals side, domestic September peak season consumption expectations still await verification, downstream restocking efforts are limited, and the weak supply and demand pattern persists. Technically, SHFE copper faces resistance at 80,200 yuan, with support holding at the 79,500 yuan level, and short-term fluctuations may maintain a consolidating trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound tomorrow, with limited new orders from downstream sectors, leading to subdued procurement sentiment. Domestic supplies have not been discounted to the psychological price level of arbitrage traders, and holders of deliverable domestic cargoes show low willingness to sell at lower prices. Transactions are anticipated to remain relatively stagnant tomorrow, while imported cargoes continue to trade at slight discounts.

In North China today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 170-1,130 yuan/mt, averaging a discount of 150 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 79,500 to 79,570 yuan/mt, with the average price at 79,660 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper opened at $9,938.5/mt overnight and touched a high of the same level, initially dipped to a low before rebounding, then retreated to the high again before continuing its decline to test $9,900/mt. It ended with a slight rebound in late trading, forming a "W" pattern, and finally settled at $9,916.5/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, while open interest stood at 289,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 79,590 yuan/mt overnight, immediately testing a low of 79,490 yuan/mt before rising to touch a high of 79,710 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated rangebound during the session and closed at 79,600 yuan/mt with a minor rise and fall in late trading, down 0.14%. Trading volume totaled 20,000 lots, and open interest reached 173,000 lots.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to see continued unabsorbed imported copper, but low-priced cargoes may attract downstream purchases. Downstream buyers are likely to maintain strong counteroffers despite high copper prices, and spot premiums may further decline. However, with tight warrant availability, the discount for domestic deliverable cargoes is unlikely to widen significantly.

In North China today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 170-110 yuan/mt, averaging 140 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 79,530 to 79,790 yuan/mt, averaging 79,660 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.