Ivanhoe discovers copper mine coupled with weak US non-farm payrolls, LME copper under pressure pulls back [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, September 8, 2025

Futures: During the night session last Friday, LME copper opened at $9,939/mt, initially rose and touched a high of $10,008/mt, then fluctuated downward and approached a low of $9,860/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $9,865/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume reaching 21,000 lots and open interest at 288,000 lots. During the night session last Friday, the most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 80,290 yuan/mt, touched a high of 80,400 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward and approached a low of 79,410 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally consolidating and closing at 79,440 yuan/mt, down 0.63%, with trading volume at 53,000 lots and open interest at 183,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 5, Canadian mining company Ivanhoe Mines announced that in its exploration joint venture in the Chu-Sarysu Basin of Kazakhstan, a surface copper mineralization zone was discovered in the Merke license area, with a thickness of about 20 meters. The visible forms of copper include malachite, azurite, and sphalerite, with multiple samples showing copper grades of 1%–5%. This discovery validates the hypothesis that mineralization is structurally controlled and will promote follow-up in-depth exploration work such as high-resolution magnetic surveys and structural mapping.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 5, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at a premium of 50–280 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 165 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 79,870 to 80,230 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the early session, SHFE copper rose from 79,750 yuan/mt, recovering the losses from the night session, then repeatedly tested 79,860 yuan/mt, and broke through the 80,000 yuan/mt mark again near the close of the morning session, touching 80,100 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between BACK 10 and BACK 30 yuan/mt, and the import loss per ton for front-month SHFE copper narrowed to within 300 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, both imported and domestic supplies are expected to arrive, and with copper prices stabilizing at highs approaching delivery, the premium is expected to have further room to decline, but deliverable supplies remain tight, and the discount is unlikely to widen beyond 50 yuan/mt.

(2) Guangdong: On September 5, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70–50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,870 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,770 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt. Overall, copper prices continued to decline, downstream procurement increased, spot premiums rose, and overall trading activity was better than the previous day.

(3) Imported copper: On September 5, warrant prices were $51-63/mt, QP September, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $53-67/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $27-35/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 5, the futures closing price was 80,100 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 165 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,700-73,900 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,754 yuan/mt, up 168 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,180 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, some companies in Jiangxi lowered the pricing coefficient for copper-containing materials, mainly targeting copper-containing hazardous waste materials, and did not reduce prices for all copper-containing scrap. Market traders of recycled copper raw materials were not concerned about the coefficient reduction announcement, so no companies have yet reduced prices for recycled copper raw materials.

(5) Inventory: On September 4, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 425 mt to 157,950 mt; on September 5, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 902 mt to 18,927 mt.



Prices: On the macro front, US non-farm payroll growth in August was far below expectations, with the previous two months’ data revised down by a combined 21,000, marking the first contraction since the end of 2020. The unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high, sparking concerns about the US economy. Gold continued to refresh historical highs, while copper prices fell. Fundamentally, supply side, imported cargoes arrived gradually last week, while domestic supply remained tight. This week, imported materials are expected to continue supplementing supply, and domestic arrivals are also expected to increase, with overall market supply projected to rise. Demand side, copper prices fluctuating at highs significantly dampened downstream procurement enthusiasm, and overall demand remained weak. Price side, the market is still weighing concerns about the US economy against optimistic expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Copper prices are expected to encounter resistance today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]