[SMM HRC Daily Review] Market Demand Gradually Increases, HRC Prices Expected to Strengthen Next Week

Published: Sep 5, 2025 17:27
HRC futures prices fluctuated higher today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,340 yuan/mt, up 1.03% for the day. Spot HRC prices rose 10-30 yuan/mt WoW, with market transactions showing significant improvement. The HRC market bottomed out after a pullback this week, though overall trading volume declined compared to last week.Supply side, steel mills reduced HRC maintenance this week, leading to increased production. Demand side, the market is transitioning between peak and off seasons, with weekly apparent consumption of HRC increasing slightly over time.Inventory side, SMM data showed national HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses (large sample) reached 3.6701 million mt, up 104,200 mt (2.92% WoW). National social inventory continued to accumulate, though the buildup pace slowed. By region, destocking occurred in south and north-east China, while east, north, and central China saw continued inventory buildup, with the north recording the largest increase.Cost side, coke prices stabilized this week, while ore prices strengthened slightly, providing overall firmer cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, coke prices are expected to see their first round of cuts, while ore prices may rise. With cost support remaining generally stable and market demand gradually increasing, HRC prices are likely to strengthen further. The most-traded HRC futures contract is projected to trade in the 3,250-3,400 range next week.

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