The US Fed will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21. SHFE tin prices remain high in sideways trading [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 4, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) edged up to 274,000 yuan/mt during the night session before maintaining a fluctuating trend, closing at 273,600 yuan/mt, up 0.21% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce issued the "Notice on Additional Funds to Continue Implementing the 2025 Vehicle and E-bike Trade-in Subsidy Policy." It mentioned an additional budget allocation of 135 million yuan for October 2025 vehicle and e-bike trade-in subsidies, including 30 million yuan for vehicle retirement and renewal, 100 million yuan for vehicle replacement, and 5 million yuan for e-bike trade-ins. The budget follows the "total control, first-come-first-served, exhausted funds" principle. (2) CPCA data showed preliminary statistics: from August 1-31, national NEV retail sales reached 1.079 million units, up 5% YoY and 9% MoM, with a retail penetration rate of 55.3%. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales stood at 7.535 million units, up 25% YoY. NEV wholesales totaled 1.292 million units, up 23% YoY and 9% MoM, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. Year-to-date cumulative wholesales reached 8.926 million units, up 33% YoY. (3) US Fed: ① Waller: Believes a rate cut should be considered at the next meeting. Multiple cuts may follow, but the pace depends on data. ② Moussalem: Current rates are appropriate, but labor market risks exist. ③ Bostic: Concerned about inflation, still sees one 2025 rate cut as appropriate. ④ The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21, discussing stablecoins, AI, and tokenization. ⑤ Fed nominee Milan: If confirmed, will uphold FOMC independence. ⑥ Kashkari: Room for mild rate cuts remains. ⑦ Fed Beige Book: Economic activity was basically flat, with businesses and households feeling tariff impacts.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters remaining under maintenance in September (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, with lower operating rates at some producers. Electronics sector: South China's terminal electronics entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices and strong wait-and-see sentiment, keeping orders at rigid demand levels. Other sectors: Stable demand in tinplate and chemical industries, lacking outperformance.

Spot market: Transactions showed divergence, with east China traders reporting moderate overall sales (20-60 mt for some), while south China saw sluggish activity (most traders transacted around 10 mt).

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in their decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]